We're 14 or 15 days away from knowing if the nda for qnexa will be accepted. there's no reason to buy until this info comes out as the downside risk is much greater than the upside returns on this news. thoughts?
The market cap is only $0.7 billion. If approved for weight loss sales easily 1+billion; probably 2billion annual sales if later approved for apnea and diabetes indication. Look at Pfizer and Merck Price/Sales 3. So with 2billion annual sales, a 6billion market cap would be average; that would be about a $76 share price. If you give it a 50/50 chance of failure to $0, or approval and $76, the average is $38, a bargain for <$9!
I actually think the upside gain is far larger than the downside loss. This has been played out from the run up. I'm going to get back in while it is treading water. The FDA looks at broad risk:reward. Several people die each month from aspirin. A few more people that are in a high morbidity group keeling over from taking this combo is peanuts compared to the tens of thousands that will benefit greatly. There are no "safe" drugs and AE's are just the price you pay. The science is solid and pharmacologists have been playing the offsetting side effects game from the moment they first hang a guinea pig ileum in a tissue bath.
Very straightforward and addresses a critical need that even the whores at the AMA acknowledge.