Here's a few reasons that I think it will not:
1) ARNA stock was mostly retail owned. (around 70%), where VVUS is mostly institutionally owned. Retail investors are unpredictable and sold off in large numbers on the news. Institutional investors are typically more in for the long haul.
2) ARNA will not be going to market until the DEA is satisfied.. this can take from 6 months, into next year. VVUS will be able to launch immediately, albeit with a cautious and restricted first year.
3) VVUS is not partnered with anyone at this time, so any money to be made will go directly to the shareholders, where ARNA will be giving a large chunk of it's profits to Eisai in Japan.
4) As well, because of ARNA's partnership, it is less attractive for a buyout by big pharma (unless Eisai buys it..) and the competition for a good price is considerably less attractive. VVUS can negotiate with anyone it wants freely.
In summary, VVUS has a brighter future.
I am a VVUS long for over 2 years, and have only bought some ARNA recently, after their FDA approval, because it believe it was oversold.
Thanks. Just trying to figure out if they could have a similar 4-6 month delay after approval for the schedule to be determined, like ARNA, and if this would delay launch. Sounds like it is plausible.
Nobody would know or does know that until approval. It is safe to assume though that it is sched four, i doubt it wont be scheduled at all or that it wil be 3 or worse as it is not that addictive.
whyme are u long?
Do you care to comment on my last post?
I really believe I'm missing something on QNEXA
Sheep being lead to slaughter IMO Classic hedge fund run up and then the carpet will get YANKED out. If you have a profit or even a slight loss from being late to the party I would strongly advise to get out now. The downside risk far outweighs the upside reward at this point.
yess... already 3B market cap!! Butout talk is nonsense.. what BP will buy a combo of two generic drugs? come on be real guys!!
Generics will make the same combo o produce both drugs in small doses for pennies... Insurance will never cover QNEXA
This is the next Silenor!