CANACCORD GENUITY July 18, 2012 FIRST PRISM PBA REGISTRY DATA: SUPPORTS PREVALENCE AND CONTINUED GOOD SCRIP TRENDS
Investment recommendation Reiterate BUY, $6 target on continued Nuedexta growth, robust peak sales estimate.
Nuedexta is AVNR’s drug for pseudobulbar affect, emotional lability seen in stroke, traumatic brain injury, Alzheimer’s and other neurodegenerative disorders. Launch has been steady, and we see new positive trends in long-term care use.
Our peak annual sales estimates are $350M US, $300M EU. Our $6 target is based on a sumof- the-parts analysis.
• First PRISM registry data: we see PBA prevalence as higher than generally estimated. AVNR established the PRISM PBA registry to find PBA prevalence and QoL impact. We think many MDs and the Street estimate PBA prevalence at 2-5% of stroke, Alzheimer’s, TBI, and MS patients. Thus far, PRISM prevalence is tracking higher than that, with prevalence of severe PBA at 5-20% of these patients.
• PRISM data reflect real world sequential screening: no “cherry picking” patients to be screened. One FAQ is if the higher PBA rates in PRISM are real, or a function of MDs only screening patients who already appear to have PBA. PRISM trial protocol requires screening sequential office-visit patients, giving us confidence in PRISM data.
• Nuedexta Rx’s continue to grow: June TRx’s up 2% over May, Q2 TRx’s up 33% over Q1. We expect increasing awareness of PBA, better screening by doctors, and AVNR’s continued long-term care marketing push will continue to drive steady revenue growth.