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VIVUS Inc. Message Board

  • csco_brat csco_brat Nov 8, 2012 6:38 PM Flag

    ARNA is now grossly overvalued

    VVUS is showing its tough to launch these drugs. ARNA only gets to share in 1/3 of their drug. So 1/3 of a small pie, equals a crumb. ARNA will fall to under $5 soon. Right?

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    • please do your homework next time. Eisai (ARNA's partner) gets the lions share for North America at about 2/3.

      The rest of the WORLD is still at the discretion of ARNA's management!

      Advertising will EXPLODE once they get the DEA. ARNA can spend millions on ads and still have over $100 million cash.

      VVUS has a real tough time, yes because of REMS requirements, the makeup of generics, no partner, etc.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 2 Replies to bantajoey_sr
      • Actually, I hypothesize that Belviq's advertising will only serve to help Qsymia in the end. If it's lack of awareness that's potentially hurting Vivus and Arena, should advertising bolster awareness of Arena, it will do so for the industry at large. When consumers spring to purchase Belviq and discover there is a more effective alternative available (Qnexa), that alternative will see increased popularity.

      • I don't see how ARNA fares significantly better than VVUS come launch. People just aren't running to their doctors to get these drugs. When it comes time for ARNA to launch their drug, its going to be the same story. a few thousand prescrtiptions rolling in each week. And then investors will be like, why is the market cap 1.5 billion, when they get 1/3 of a few tens of millions of revenue. And if fat americans aren't lining up to get these drugs, i doubt skinny Koreans are.

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