amazing eh? Especially knowing these Belviq trail numbers...3.3% placebo adjusted weight loss average after 12 weeks. WAIT, that's not all. 50-75% won't lose enough weight to go beyond 12 weeks of use, because they won't lose 5% of their baseline! YIKES!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The real reason Qysmia is not selling well and VVUS has such a low market cap is not due to the REMS or the mail order sales channel. It is due to the fact that there are generic replacements, which ARNA does not have. If you really think about it, the 30% of people who abandoned their prescriptions went to the trouble of seeing a doctor to seek help for their situation do you really think they are not motivated to lose weight. What is really happening is when they found the cost of Qysmia is 160 dollars per month they probably asked if there was a cheaper alternative and their doctor just gave them two prescriptions for Phen and Topamax which costs maybe 30-50 dollars a month with insurance covering Topamax. If you people continue to believe all the Wall Street FUD about Arena being Placebo and not seeing the very real weight loss and type 2DM benefits you deserve your fate with a loser drug that will always be competing with generics. Even VVUS management don't believe in Qysmia when they sold you all their shares in the 30 dollar range, so why should you.
Tas86.. If, as you contend, 30% of patients are turning down Qsymia because of cost how does this not impact Belviq sales in the same way? The patient population is intent on weight loss, but there is a demand curve in the market which currently causes 30% of market to decline drug purchase when the price is ~$150 per month. Are you suggesting Belviq is in a different market from Qsymia so the demand curve for Belviq is in some way fundamentally different? Are suggesting Belviq will be priced substantially less than Qsymia so as to pick up that 30%? If no, then won't generic drug components of Qsymia eat into Qsymia sales just as much as they will Belviq sales? If no, explain why.
tas- I thought for a minute you had something and knew what you were talking about but just like most Arniacs you stoop to what serves you best. If you knew what you were talking about you'd know that Aetna and Medco/Express Scripts, 2 of the countries biggest, are now covering perscriptions. Blue Cross is in process of analysis and so are many others. By the way one of the requirements for coverage is EFFICACY. You fail. How is Belviq going to get coverage if they don't meet one the the required end-points. Please answer this question. on second hand please don't answer as it will be self serving no doubt.
ARNIACS are delusional right now... Worst thing that can happen for ARNA is for them to start selling their useless drug followed by mass drop out and rejection from who ever uses it. Who would want to use a drug with unknown side effects so may be if they are lucky they can lose %5 !?
You people weren;t crying when this was 30.00! When mr market was pumping your company up like a hot air baloon, you were totally happy with it---even if it wasn;t warrented!
Now your company is fighting the same gunk we at ARNA have had to fight for so long! Now VVUS is heading away from being mr markets mistress! Sour grapes thread above!!
You still don;t get it--you have this market, indication and these drugs all wrong! You enjoyed the support you didn;t deserve and now you have gotten what you deserve! And more is to come and its not going to be what ya want!!
There is room in the market for both ARNA and VVUS.
VVUS will not get young women who might become pg. Drs won't want the risk. ARNA can fill that niche with a drug that may be less effective, but still better than placebo.