All the stock trader hype around VVUS has been deflated, very little interest long or short.
And yet in the real world
- The sales force has been busy calling on and communicating at the very least with 3000 unique physicians per month,
- The sales force effectiveness has increased with refined presentations and sales agent education.
- From the last VVUS Q call that a little less than 3000 unique physicians had prescribed Qsymia so it's not all unreasonable to assume 3 months later that number has grown to greater than 4000 - 5000 physicians.
- The typical PCP on average sees 20 obese patients per week, that's not even including overweight patients
- From search engine traffic trends that the number of searches on "Qsymia" is climbing, particularly in the past month.
- Daily non-financial tweets about Qsymia going out to at least 1000 people per day on average.
- After 3-4 months of use at least 3000 physicians have now personally observed their patients loose 10, 20, 30 lbs., and measured the associated reduction in blood pressure, a1c, etc. and gotten positive feedback from their patients.
- once a patient is setup on mail-order pharmacy and the doctor's office is familiar with the mail order process Qsymia via mail-order is a breeze,
-The mail-order pharmacies have had 3 months to work out all the kinks, size staff and streamline process around Qsymia orders.
- There are at the very least 20K people on Qsymia today and collectively they've communicated positive experiences on Qsymia to at least another 40K people, who then probably told another 80K people the second hand experience. 1/3 of all those people are obese, at least.
- The FDA requested VVUS submit revised REMS to allow for local pharmacy sales and that should be approved in Apr.
- Insurance coverage is increasing.
Point being, all the traders are looking backward at VVUS perfomance, but the drop from $30 to $12, the slow sales start and REMS are all past events and quickly becoming outdated knowledge. The above reality will come out in the next couple months in the VVUS Q call and monthly script numbers. Now is the time to go long, not when hype is at its peak...
Todzun we are on the same side but your numbers are off on prescribers... The 8-k released by Vivus on January 7th with the slideshows(investor relations on vivus site in sec filings). Showed that the Qsymia unique prescriber base had already grown from 3k prescribers to 7,700 unique prescribers as of Dec 21st. Which was one of the most positive aspects of the presentation. Given that we are already a month and half past that I expect even more drastic of an uptick in both scripts and prescriber base, especially because express scripts began coverage dec 20th. Great post.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
todzun......all good points, but at the same time omitted many other positive events that will be taking place over the next 3-6 months. One thing which I'll disagree with you, is your first sentence, or maybe you should have just finished the sentence.. Stock trader hype has been deflated, but by an orchestrated effort. The wannabe longs (institutions, hedge funds and so fourth) who missed it the first time around before the positive adcom and FDA approval, now want in. They've brought the price down with great effort, making it look like Vivus is doomed with both drugs. I've been spouting the last three months about these manipulators knowing the time table and how long they had to bring the share price down without any positive news coming out of the Vivus camp. They new it would be a slow start for Q (because of so many restraints on the therapy) and analysts would then abuse the drug and share price. They also have the paid bashers in every form of media and analysts wanting to downgrade Vivus's share price for them. But time has now run out for these groups to bring the share price down any farther, and my guess is you will start to read positive articles and stories about Q. The "Q Bandwagon" is about to leave the station. But I still think AstraZeneca buys them up before 4/27/13.
I have yet to figure out how to properly account for stock price manipulation in my long-term risk to reward assessments of individual stocks so I just accept it as noise that's smoothed out in the long run by observable facts and trends.
But yes, I agree with you. I believe we will see significant appreciation in VVUS pps in the next 3-6 months and a buyout at any time is likely.
whoa whoa whoa, hold the phone. NOW is the time? You sure? Not last week when you were pumping, or the week before that or the month before that or the time when it was $30/share when the insiders sold, NOW IS THE TIME????
Well ok then, yep it's really smart to buy now before the year end results are released and the numbers show how completely s*h*i*tty your advice is.
Blah, blah, blah will_da_boy
A guy who got suckered into believing lorcaserin lowers a1c by some mystery mechanism outside of simple weight loss and changes in patient diet by an anonymous poster named Dr Dan. A guy doesn't realize Dr Dan is just some post-doc student who may have studied serotonin receptors and was hired by Deerfield Management to pump their investment in ARNA on MBs to a bunch of dumb individual investors who had no clue what a load #$%$ Dr Dan was pumping out.