Why Belviq will only be a catalyst to Qsymia Sales.
We'll start out with the obvious.. increased awareness in the obesity market and both companies driving to get additional insurance coverage will facilitate Qsymia sales. The real aspect that will be the catalyst that drives Qsymia Sales is efficacy. Belviq provided approx a placebo adjusted weight loss of 3% in comparison to Qsymia's nearly 10% placebo adjust efficacy. Another aspect that will be helpful to qsymia sales is the immense drop out rate belviq saw in clincial trials 50-60% when the drug was provided for free. Imagine the drop out rate when cash is king and less than 30% of patients are covered, especially given the rumors on the arena board of 200+/mo. script costs. Dropout leads to patients seeking alternatives. Qsymia is less than two months away from a decision on REMs for retail access which will further facilitate steady script growth. Belviq's marginal efficacy and drop out rate plus increased obesity awareness will only help drive Qsymia sales in my opinion.
The problem you have been brainwashed by AF and ARNA shorts that you ignored 1) the fact that Belviq's responders actually lost ~11% of their weight 2) the "rumors" of $200+/mo is before 60-70% to be covered by insurance 3) B has side effects but Q has more 4) Q can't commercialized, 5) ain't no partner to share the costs. Based on just these 5 points alone, I'd say keep on dreaming.
No the problem is you have been brain washed by the retail hurd that holds arena. B has the lowest responder rate of the 3 overall obesity drugs and the highest drop out rate. Which put B responders between 40-50%, leaving the remainder not achieving meaningful weight loss. Also your numbers are flipped 60-70% of people don't have coverage for obesity drugs. If you listen to Jack's conference call from a few weeks ago he even stated the primary source of payment post-launch will be cash. If B has such fewer side effects why is the drop out rate so much more substantial then Q. Vivus can have a partner share the cost but if its at the expense of more than half the revenue its not worth it IMO.