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VIVUS Inc. Message Board

  • aa_pippo aa_pippo Jul 22, 2013 10:34 AM Flag

    Buyout more likely than partnership now

    because FMC has now skills / knowledge / desire to run a Biotech company they are just investors who want to make the most out of their money.

    Buyout in the $25 range in 6months is my prediction.
    It underestimates the potential on VVUS but it is what it is...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I disagree. Think partnership at least as likely if not more. FMC will not be "running the company". They control the board. Most of the VVUS operations and corporate management team is still in place. Zook is very experienced at running pharma.

      From the perspective of a BP, a partnership is less risky than a buyout, when the case for an obesity "blockbuster" remains unproven. This depends on the pricing of course. All IMO.

      I hope u and others are right about buyout likely around $25. I just think its a little optimistic at this stage. Maybe if Q sales really start accelerating now with relaxed REMS and DTC ads, but as of now I think a BP can wait for Q to prove itself. I'm betting that Q eventually does...

      I also think/hope we trade $15-20 for next few months.

    • I think minimum $30, hopefully a little higher.

    • Agree, there is nothing in the drug pipeline worth valuing, the terminal value on the current patents is declining with each passing day, Q efficacy and safety in real world clinical use has been satisfied, pending patents may have value if granted, future EMA approval with 10 year exclusivity has potential future value. There is only one logical outcome from a business perspective and that's a buyout within 6 months with BP deriving additional value with their ability to effectively scale sales with existing infrastructure.

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