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VIVUS Inc. Message Board

  • TheWiseFox TheWiseFox Mar 19, 1998 11:02 AM Flag

    Viagra taking over

    I am afraid that the FDA approval of Viagra expected next week is going to hurt Vivus stock for at least the next 3-6 months. Sorry, facts are facts, plus we all will be watching 20/20 tomorrow nite to see what PFE has to say. Look out. I see Vivus in the single digits for a shortwhile before rebounding. My opinion only. Hope I am wrong.

    The WiseFox

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    • You are very charming. Good luck on your investments as well!!

      The WiseFox

    • << I view my vivus stock as a fine wine. It needs to age before it will be ripe for drinking.>>

      Wow!!!!! Very Well Said!!!!!

      Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Good Luck to you!

    • Thanks for a good rational post and steadying the course.

    • Hopeful, my average price is only 11 3/4. Similar to you.

      I believe the support is very strong at about 10 1/2. All the news regarding PFE is currently all build into the price. I am also disappointed by the movement of this stock after the plant approval. I believe it hit 10 1/2 several time already. Except the year end tax selling. It support VVUS every single time.


    • Heavens, I'm probably the last person on this thread who should be hazarding an opinion on how long it'll take to recover,since I'm pretty new at all this, but I appreciate the question. I'd known about the company for awhile, but I jumped in at 12 1/8 in Dec and averaged down to around 11.5. I'll buy more if it dips below 10.
      I haven't questioned my position because, of all the posts on this and the SI thread, the posters who backed up their
      opinions with facts were the longs. Not once have I read a bearish opinion of this company that got more specific than smoke, dog,
      SELL, and the big Viagra threat--exactly what I would say if I were to short a stock. Management's decisions have been a little
      hard to fathom sometimes, but they seem to be heading in the right direction--with the first good earnings release, the stock
      price will, too. BTW, if you haven't already read them, Gary McBride on the SI thread has made several conservative predictions on
      the stock price recently--I'd like VVUS to do better, but his opinions are hopefully worst case. Good luck!

    • Why does HVSF keep posting their garbage on the vivus news thread? It seem like they always mention Vivus in their press release to get free advertising. Is HVSF a real company or just a front produced by a shorting institution? When I look under the profile it says they have 2 employees. How can a company that makes a motion potion really expect to compete with Vivus or Pfizer? I also notice it is a Nevada corporation. Seems fishy to me.

    • Hi all...

      I have never seen such a blood hunt as whats occuring with this stock. The fundamentals right now are so strong that even with
      Viagra consuming half of Vivus sales right off of the bat, which seems unlikely, Vivus should still be trading in the 20's. The shorts will have to run for cover at some point. A 10 P.E. in such a growth industry not even accounting for the new plant sales certainly cannot last. SO PLEASE DON'T SELL NOW AND GIVE THE SHORTS COVERAGE. WE CAN ONLY LOSE IF WE SELL NOW! Hang in there, longs. Our time will come.

      • 2 Replies to coryamy
      • Come on !!! We have MCA approval !!! If we didn"t get the approval then you should have jumped ship. If you didn"t sell at
        15 why would you sell at 11. This stock had VOL of 900,000 today certainly somebody thinks its going to go up! This stock has
        been discounted already, all the bad news is out!! Only good news will happen know. With this new factory on board , I'm sure
        VIVUS will WIN. The expections of Viagra are huge, most likely the BUBBLE WILL BURST, VVUS will EXPLOPE, END OF STORY. LONGS stay
        LONG , SHORTS talk to me in Aug.

      • Jman (5984 )
        From: VLAD Thursday, Mar 19 1998 5:17PM EST
        Reply # of 5990

        VVUS--todays trading. Well folks it looks like the WSJ article helped push vivus down some more. After todays trading I can
        say for sure that 2 days ago Smith Barney was manipulating the stock price. SB sat at 11 1/2 on the ask for half the day--I
        didn't know if he was selling or shorting but after today I know that he was shorting. As soon as the price dropped to 10 11/16 SB
        upped the bid to 10 3/4 (currently our short term support level) and sat on the bid for a long time. SB obviously made a ton of
        money and currently is the main market manipulator. Just think SB shorted tens of thousands of shares 2 days ago and today made
        3/4 of a point on all those shares--thats mucho mula for SB in 48 hours. Towards the end of the day SB switched to the ask at 10
        7/8 and 10 15/16 shorting again thus preventing a move back to the 11's. Anyway I conclude that we can all thank Smith Barney
        for the lack of a significant price gain (I think we all expected a point if not a couple of points) Tuesday when the MCA
        approval announcement was released. Brokerage firms such as SB are no better than the lawyers suing vivus. They see that the poor
        vivus rhino is severeley wounded, recumbent in the hot African sun and what do they do? They take advantage of our beautiful rhino
        and proceed to club him over the head. The question is: will the market manipulators finish him off or does he still have some
        fight left in him? I still think our beloved rhino will eventually come back with a vengence. When I honestly believe that this
        company is toast because of Viagra I will humanely euthanise my Vivus shares and put the rhino and myself out of our misery. Until
        then SCREW YOU SB AND ALL THE REST OF THE MANIPLULATORS/SHORTS!!! I hope the Vivus rhino rears his head up and you wind up with a
        horn in your crotch. The buzzards can then eat your remains after you slowly bleed to death following your free castration (even
        Viagra won't help). Sorry all--I need to vent big time and typing this garbage certainly beats throwing my monitor across the room.
        Note--at 6pm EST CNBC will discuss the miracle pill. PFE sure knows how to pull all the PR ropes. If Viagras PR does indeed create a
        significant increase in impotent men seeking treatment then I believe that it will help vivuses bottom line significantly. It can't take
        that long (maybe just a free sample) for individual effectiveness to be determined. Vivus may lose those mildly or psychogenic
        effected patients but Viagra will hopefully lead significant numbers of moderately to severely impotent men to their doctor's office
        and a MUSE script can be written along with a free Viagra sample--if the Viagra doesn't work then Vivus gets a new patient.
        Thats the way I view the MUSE/VIAGRA situation. Can any MDs please comment of the possibility of using both Viagra and Muse for
        men who don't respond well to just MUSE or Viagra alone. Calling DR BOND--script data PLEASE. Thanks.

    • That was a joke, Fox--I know it pains you to voice an opinion like that, almost as much as it pains me to read it! You may
      well be right, although the price seems to be holding right now. We all knew this ugly period would come (Viagra's release) and
      now it may well be here. It would be nice if VVUS would come out now with a revised earnings estimate, but if we do see the 9s
      again, I'll average down and wait for 2Q. As I understand, the huge overseas market hasn't really even been tapped yet, and 30-40%
      of the market (or whatever VVUS ends up with when the dust settles) will make it worth my while to stick around, especially if
      I can afford to average down to 10 if things don't go well in the short term. It seems that, with any media hype-show, there
      are the vultures just waiting for something to go wrong, so they can turn and trash whatever it is they've just been hyping. I'd
      like to think that, after calling Viagra the Drug of the Century, they'll also be watching for any chink in its armor.

      This company isn't a sinking ship--I don't care what the opecs of the world say. The seas may get rough for awhile, though--it'll just make the cargo more valuable in the long run...All IMHO. Best thing I could do for myself would be to not watch every 1/8 of a point fluctuation for the next couple months...Later

      • 1 Reply to hopefulOR
      • Nice to hear from you!! I have to tell you the truth. I sold much of my Vivus this morning and bought PFE. If Pfizer were
        some little company I would have a different approach, but they are not. They have a reputation to satisfy, like Merck , the
        other huge drug company. They would not be producing an unproven drug that will taint their image. Take a look at their chart over
        the life of the company. Steady steady up up up. Over double in just the last year. That's like buying Vivus for 11 and selling
        for 22+. Most investors would do that. These are not income type stocks. Vivus, I believe will always have a place in the
        market, but how much should Viagra work on the majority of users? Something to think about. Anyway, I am in both of them now. I
        won't lose any money with PFE, that's for sure. You take care and will talk with you tomorrow.

        The WiseFox

    • You're right, but I don't see the rebound.

      Grab hold of something - we're sinking.


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