BioTuesdays - Ladenburg highlights market potential for MediciNova’s MN-166
Ladenburg highlights market potential for MediciNova’s MN-166
March 22, 2013 by leonardzehr · Leave a Comment
Ladenburg Thalmann outlined the market potential for MediciNova’s (NASDAQ:MNOV: OSE:4875) MN-166 (ibudilast) for the treatment of opioid and methamphetamine dependence after the company reported positive Phase 1b/2a data for the therapy earlier this week.
Analyst Matt Kaplan also reiterated his “buy” rating and $6 price target on Medicinova.
Currently, MN-166 is in a Phase 2a trial in patients with opioid dependence being run by investigators at Columbia University and a Phase 1b trial in methamphetamine dependent patients being run by investigators at UCLA.
“Importantly, we anticipate that data from the Phase 1b methamphetamine dependence study could be presented at the CPDD meeting in June 2013,” Mr. Kaplan writes. “Furthermore, the FDA recently granted fast track designation to MN-166 for the treatment of methamphetamine dependence, which may enable MN-166 to reach the market ahead of our expectations.”
He figures the market opportunity for MN-166 for the treatment of methamphetamine and opioid addiction is significant. Currently there is nothing approved for the treatment of methamphetamine addiction, and the incidence of treatment admissions for methamphetamine addiction is about 140,000 patients annually. In addition, there is an estimated prevalence of about 440,000 habitual users.
Mr. Kaplan is currently projecting a typical launch profile that reaches peak market penetration into the treatment seeking patient population of 27% in six years, which equates to approximately 41,000 patients utilizing MN-166 at peak in 2022.
Citing an essential monopoly at launch, “we believe there may be considerable upside potential to our initial market adoption assumptions. With the launch assumptions noted and an annual treatment WAC of $6,000, we believe that MN-166 could generate approximately $270-million in revenue.”