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Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. Message Board

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  • Grump430 Grump430 Jun 16, 2004 12:59 PM Flag

    Rise and Shine

    6 month chart. Sell volume is tapering off after a robust selloff. Some kind of a double would be appropriate . An aggressive view could say the bottom was found yesterday at 16.16. There could be a decent trade lurking at tnese levels. Longs would like to see a positive close today.

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    • I would agree that the selling seems to have been drying up, and I think there is a good chance that we are close to a bottom if we haven't seen it already. There doesn't seem to be much urgency to sell at these levels, but so far no urgent rush to buy. This is the kind of situation referred to in the old sayng "Never short a dull market".

      Looking at a chart of FCS, besides the declining volume as the price has dropped, the other things I notice are that the CMF has been improving and the MACD has not been indicating deterioration. Whether we get a double bottom or not, the key question is whether we will have a positive crossover of some of the moving averages anytime soon.

      http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=FCS,uu[l,a]daclniay[pb10!b20][vc60][
      iUah12,26,9!Lc20]&pref=G


      The 10-day moving average is at about $17.07, but it has been declining sharply toward the lower FCS price. If there is a pickup in volume as FCS crosses above that line, it may propel FCS higher and lead to additional crossing of the 20 dma, 50 dma, etc.

      While a trade may be possible, the main rational for buying is that the stock price is very cheap and there seems to be little selling pressure. Since any buying interest could move the stock significantly higher and the low price tends to provide some downside protection, I think it has an attractive risk/reward.

    • I meant to say double bottom, would be appropriate.

 
FCS
19.59-0.17(-0.86%)Jun 2 4:00 PMEDT