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CarMax Inc. Message Board

  • radmok radmok Oct 2, 2007 5:19 AM Flag

    cant understand long psych...

    Obviosuly KMX is facing severe headwinds.. UNDENIABLE... the industry itself is in the dumps.. why would one want to go long KMX vis-a-vis a tonne of other stocks in stronger industries and facing TAILWINDS.... (eg ESV, EXM... ).. or simply GLD for that matter...

    Unable to understand why fight reality... there is out there NOT ONE SINGLE factor in favor of KMX and there wont be one any time soon.... why defend a losing proposition?

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    • Tom , like I have repeatedly told all here your competition is the franchised dealer who with manufactures intervention could control the market . 2 reasons . Total control of remarketing the lease turnins and the expansion of the CPO programs which are getting stronger ang stronger every year . Right at GM WE HAVE THE 100000 MILE warrant and subvented interest rates , 2.9 and 4.9 on most models .

    • Frankly Mack,

      I think that carmax has their hands full expanding and protecting against copy cats. Lithia has a copy cat unit in Oklahoma I believe. If you watched the manner of dealing with a competitor, it is draining. But look what happened to AN's copy cat unit.

      It was either Folliard or Ligon that said they will deal with competitors like Southwest does. That means opening across the street and driving them out. Personally, I like the attitude. Very un circuit city like.

      So I will be happy watching them grow here for the time being. But what you predict is on the horizon, just not soon IMO.

      T

    • Tom , the fact that Adesa auctions got there foot into China leads me to believe that The Chinese gov't might be receptive to KMX . Where there is wholesale growth there has to be retail growth as well . According to research from GM within 10 years China will be the number 1 car market in the world . Also look for the likes of Penske , AN to try to break into the auto retailing in China . Walmart is there , why not KMX ..

    • Oh, by the way Tim, you can change your descriptions in the two profiles but I copied them. I have no concept as to why people waste their time here with no information about the stock or the company. KMX and its stock are only investments and an operating company. I do not take it personally.

      Short of long, the market is a place to make money. By the way Tim or whatever your name is, the stock may trade lower but is still within the pre-earnings Q pricing, which I find surpriseing. Also, I do not suggest what others do and hopefully no one is following me. I believe that would be stupid. We all need to do our work and decide for ourselves. I believe KMX is a good investment for my needs and risk tolerance, which I do not think I have ever put on this board.

      Here is your almost exact profile stockpicker, quick change it and fool everyone! lol

      http://profiles.yahoo.com/insiders_blow_me

    • They have to let the big boys out before they plunge it any further...But like RSH, KMX is a dying stock!

    • There will always be a retail used car market. KMX has invented a better way to serve a portion of that market, similar to the way McDonald's, Best Buy and Home Depot now serves the diner, electronics and hardware markets. They have proven they can operate in this model in the black. As a long-term investor (willing to ride out 5-7 years of ups and downs) these are the only trends I care about.

    • Ok Rad, I will bite.

      It is not a psychological issue, it is a numbers issue. I must put my psychological reaction to many external events aside. I rely on other factors such as value, understanding the concept, understanding the operation and knowing as much as I can about the management.

      I try to not invest on the basis of fear or greed, except in as much as they effect the present dollar value of the stock. As I am sure you are aware now, I use fundamental analysis and intrinsic value along with business acuity to make my decisions.

      I understand that the used car market is expecting challenges. This is not new. Looking historically at the used car marketplace it goes up and down but not like the new car market. In fact it is minimal in the long run. As this happens, this company continues to increase market share. When the market for used cars returns, which out of necessity it will, this company will jump expodentially based on its market share plus its indigenous continuing growth. In other words, even in a cyclicaly decreasing market, the company value is increasing. With a temporary decrease in stock price. there is only a decrease in my risk. Volatility does not always equate to risk. So as it goes down, I will buy.

      Hmmmmm There are multibillion dollars of holders that agree and have not sold.

      I believe I buy into weakness and sell into strength as well try to purchase when people are fearful and not when they are being greedy. True value plays are getting fewer in this lofty market place but this is becoming an excellent one now.

      T

 
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