Guess What the Average Total Short Interest Breakeven Price Is?
Lets have some fun and try and guess the average total short interest breakeven price. If the current after hours price is well above the average for all of the total short interest, this will smoke out the shorts that are currently above their break even price rather fast (they are under water). Can we say margin calls will be made on Thursday morning.
Lloyd, nice guess. If this is true there are many shorts that are severely under water. I believe most of those in your price range have already covered.
Looking at the last three large volume down days, here is what I come up with.
11-05-12 to 11-15-12 price from $36.81 down to $23.36
11-06-12 volume 7,423,763 -18.39%
10-02-12 volume 4,711,369 - 4.21% price from $40.92 down to $36.66
9-25-12 volume 7,927,912 -6.67% price from $44.59 down to $40.56
So in my opinion $44.59 is most likely a very good short interest break even number for a large majority of the current short interest holders. The first half hour of after market (2-13-13) traded in the $44 and $ 45 dollar range.
If some how we can force a very large gap up at the open tomorrow (9:30AM) above $44.59 "Z" will capture their attention real quick. We need to remove all orders from pre-market, be patient and smoke out all short covering buyers. They do not want to get caught in a large gap up at the open, but may have no choice.