So no mention of October Unique Users - Does this mean another slump like September?
Following the massive slump in Unique user numbers in September it was interesting that the Zillow press release mentions the August number with no mention of September user numbers. Equally, NO mention of the October Unique User numbers despite it being 5 days after month end. Does this mean that the October numbers are as disastrous as September? One has to believe the worse when there is such a major lack of transparency. I was intrigued none of the Analysts asked such an obvious question.
I don't think you seem to understand metrics, just like your friend odysseus on seeking alpha (hence his money losing short position). The Unique Users rate is obviously going to trend downward b/c your taking the rate from an increased number quarter over quarter, year over year. For instance 10% increase from 20M is NOT better than 9% increase from 30M. But the actual NUMBER of unique users is increasing even if the rate from previous is lower.
Zillow beat on top line, bottom line, and raised guidance. Stock will trend back to $100+, and thats all the metrics that matter.
MD - I need a prescription for those rose tinted glasses that you wear. Zillow Unique Users slumped 8.3% in September and fell again from 58.4 million users to 58.1 million users for October. Adjust the October number for 31 days and the Users were down by a further 2% in the month. Zillow KNEW this yesterday and it is typical of the lack of transparency they demonstrate all the time. So much for 'history making social media earnings calls' when withholding key metric information that investors need to know.
Surely Zillow understands that this makes their approach look cynical and deceitful? But then as many of us with nonsense errorneous zestimates already know, Zillow is so arrogant it thinks it can bully its way and ignore the facts despite any reputational damage that it may suffer as a consequence.
They beat the watered down guidance which analysts have slashed repeatedly since the start of the year as Zillow's S&M ballooned out of control and EPS forecasts collapsed. Even without the stock comp from last quarter S&M is running at close to 60% of revenue as Zillow build their "brand". But they are getting consistently less growth in users, premier agent subscribers and revenue with every additional S&M dollar they are spending.
And it seems like The Street is finally starting to catch on.
My favorite lie was when they said rising mortgage rates don't effect their business model. Say what?
"They have been sitting on the sidelines for 2 or 3 or 4 years waiting for home values to bottom and now that they feel that home values have bottomed and are appreciating rapidly, they're trying to move quickly, independent of what's happening to the mortgage rates. So it hasn't affected -- we don't think it's affected our shopper volumes. "