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Trizec Properties, Inc. (TRZ) Message Board

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  • pcmsearch pcmsearch Mar 30, 2003 8:46 PM Flag

    has more upside potential than others

    You sound like a trend follower Freddie.

    When you are picking your ass the stock will move up. The market moves up in anticipation of events. You just can't understand this.

    You keep analyzing the numbers. It's not going to get any better over night but the stock will defy your skepticism.

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    • No I do follow the trend and the trend thus far is that TRZ is lagging its peer group. The trading patterns are clear. The discount is taking into account the lag in TRZ's own recovery.... TRZ will need more time to lease up more space in its peer group to offer investors equivalent growth because of its higher than peer group leverage.

      If you have two reits in the same market you cannot possibly argue that TRZ can generate rent premiums on their buildings compared to the peer group to make up for the difference in leverage.

      I don't think you get the internal workings of TRZ and think that the general recovery in the economy will lift all boats the same or in your suggestion will lift TRZ higher because it is at a greater discount.

      Compare their interest expenses and tell me that you believe TRZ's ppties are so much more superior in the same markets that they can command premiums in rents sufficient to makeup for the higher interest rates.

      You darn right I'm looking at the numbers and I am saying that TRZ is at a competitive disadvantage and cannot go forward being overlevered in a future economy that is not going to light up the world. If we were going to have a hot economy with lots of growth and filling up of office space quickly like the last boom I can see a scenerio where TRZ's buildings could command the premiums needed to make up for the leverage.

      But, going forward, in a slow economic recovery where space will be absorbed at much slower rates and brokers are out there showing all available space in a competitive market will prevent TRZ to makeup for its own balance sheet weaknesses. If it wants to rent it will have to offer competitive rates with the peer group who hold the clear advantage. TRZ is not a developer oriented reit and it is leveraged as if it were a developer oriented reit. TRZ's bets are too big for the wrong kind of economic environmt going forward.

      I think you better start doing some real homework because the issue is that 80 cent dividend will probably have to stand for the next two or so years into a recovery and the peer group will be able to easily raise dividends..... at that point office reits quickly restoring dividend increases will be the ones to own.... regardless of perceived discounts to value. Discounts to nav are meaningless if you are too levered to an economic scenerio that is at best many many year away.

 

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