When you get into the Bakken wells you are typically looking at an 18 month return on investment in the wells, some better some worse. Reading the Antarres presentation you see a couple of interesting items.
For the Southern Star area they show a typical IP rate of 132 bopd. This IP rate gives a payback on the well of 1.2 years. Check slide 21 for this info (watch the number system)
For the Big Star area they show a typical IP rate of 93 bopd and a payback time on the wells of 1.3 years (check slide 26)
The economics are based on lots of wells drilled at reasonable costs. They are not looking for big numbers on the wells to make money.
Presentation slide numbers are at the top of each page
The heat has really taken a toll here this year Win. For the last couple of weeks we've had a little break in the heat and a little rain, but today we saw 105 again plus humidity. Is the predicted Hurricane path going to affect you any?
A supposed former stock holder wondering why anyone would share their research and conclusions. Why anyone would or could conclude there are positive attributes afoot in a Texas oil play. You've really got them stumped Win and I'm enjoying this immensely. ;-)
Anyone that is expecting the same IP rates as horizontal 15 plus stage fracs is dreaming in this play.
It isn't the Bakkan nor do the wells cost 6-8 million dollars (some more) to place as they do there.
I personally would like to see IP rates above 250 though simply because I don't know how steep the decline curve will be.
My feeling is that they will still have a substantial decline from 250 below 100 within a 3 month period.
If I am starting at 90 or 100 and then it declines to 35 barrels a day and oil goes down into the low 70's which I still think is a possiblility if confidence doesn't return to the equity market, then a little bit of my "darn it I didn't figure that in" factor has been eliminated.
I still think anyone writing this company off is making a mistake.
They need to perfect their performance in the field and increase their IP rates and I think they can easily jump a good 30 plus percent. They still have the cash to do it. If I currently owned stock in this company I believe that I would hold for 2 more months before making a judgement.
I personally think that there is good oil supplies on their land, they just haven't figured out yet how to successfully get it out. All just my crazy opinion. Signing out for the night. Good luck to ya and appreciate your insight and opinions. Dave