The latest seeking alpha article sees a 50% hike in sales for clne. But they failed to include the massive increase in refuse and other stations that are contracted and queued to be built. here's an excerpt.
That appears to be the case. Littlefair also stated that heavy-duty truck engine shipments were "a couple thousand ahead" of where he expected them. He also said that seeing 10,000 big rigs running the CWI ISX12 G engine a year from now was a reasonable projection. And at 15,000 gallons of fuel per truck per year, that's a lot of opportunity.
At $2.25 per gallon equivalent, the $337 million worth of fuel, is more than Clean Energy's TTM total sales. If Clean Energy can grab half of that market share, the company's revenue just went up 50%. And if you think that's a reach, consider this:
Key partners Pilot/Flying J and Mansfield currently have access to about 11 billion gallons of the current 25 billion gallon diesel market. That's access to pretty close to half of the market, and ignores the potentially massive first-mover advantage the company has right now, with far more stations in place and ready to open than any competitor.
From Clean Energy website...
"Because approximately half of our sales contracts are structured on an index-plus methodology, whereby we add a fixed margin to the market price of natural gas we pay to purchase the natural gas we ultimately sell to our customers, we like to point out that although tracking revenue growth is important, it is not perfectly indicative of how our business is performing"......
I believe very strongly that CLNE will become a major player and become very successful in the conversion to natural gas. But anyone who thinks that CLNE is selling fuel at retail simply has not done enough reading.
Counting the VTEC reimbursement, CLNE makes, on average, 50 cents per gallon on LNG, CNG and RNG. And for the past three quarters their sales have been flat at 50 million gallons/quarter. Then, for a reason I don't understand, they further reduce the profit by adding 'depreciation and amortization to the cost of goods. If you include those figures, the profit is down to around 30 cents per gallon regardless of what they sell it for.
Whoever wrote the Seeking Alpha article needs to do a bit more study. He has the right idea, but he's using the wrong business model.
Listener, how many gallons does CLNE have to sell to make a profit, do you think? I mean, if they lose only 10 cents or what not from selling 50 some odd million gallons, what happens when they get to selling 100 million gallons per quarter? According to your numbers, their annual gross profit would be 400 M x .30 doollars is 120 M dollars. 120/90 is 1.33 in gross profit for each share of CLNE. What is that in net? Plus add in other profit streams. Where does that get us? I am sure you have already done this calculation. I appreciate your time in clueing some of us in.