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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

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  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Mar 29, 2010 8:50 AM Flag

    $11M in arrears on pref...

    Is it really going to matter, when EMMS revenue grows upwards of 10% or so, this year? Yes, EMMS is HIGHLY leveraged. But they are going to have a LOT more options 6-12 months from now, than they do now. Just for example, I can see things getting so good, that someone is willing to offer to finance a Dutch tender of the preferred stock at, say, anywhere from a $25-30 price, including accrued dividends, which would be a win win situation for all.

    I don't see why, with the industry the strongest its been looking in YEARS, why EMMS can't be trading at $3-5, by the end of the year. A rising tide lifts all boats, and big city radio has been showing evidence of pulling out the soonest of any. Wildcard: How will the publication divisions revenues trend this year?

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    • I agree they have a big tailwind at their backs. And publishing actually has been a value destroyer lately.

      The bank debt is money good - so management needs to settle up with the pref's. That said - I can't see the banks allowing the co. to use money to buy back suborndianted pref. Perhaps a global refinancing and/or pref's get some cash and some equity would do the trick.

      Lots of potential outcomes here - but big market radio is clearly up very big, far more than the industry average.

      I guess if it traded at a buck before all the good news there is every reason to think it will trade above it when the good news hits.

      SGA is also another HUGE winner that not many people discuss. Well run and stock still very cheap, though EMMS and others have the super leveraged balance sheets that provide more upside during this cycle.

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