After having bought a block of 50,000 on 8/30, another 115,000 on September 6th. This is now my largest position ever in this stock.
I believe EMMS is drastically misspriced by the Street, and it should have its highest "fair value" that we have seen in at least the last 3 1/2 years, with the elimination of roughly ONE THIRD of its debt, from the recently closed deal to sell 3 of its radio assets, THAT WERE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE EBITDA. (We're giving up very little here, to get a lot.)
With the committed for sale of the L.A. station for another $110 M or so, that would take away ANOTHER 1/3 of the debt.
I continue to remain EXTREMELY puzzled on why investors are missing the attractiveness of the situation. If anything, it would HARDLY be out of the question, at some point in time, when the financing markets get better, for the CEO to make another run at the company. Imho.
This all having been said, EMMS's volatility makes it for an excellent trading stock, and I fully expect to take advantage of the "wiggles" to "surf" this thing...while maintaining a large core position. I see short term "fair value" at $1.00-1.15....and have a one to two year target of $3-4.
Anyone worried about that is foolish. Management pretty much signaled, in its public statements, that ITS not worried about it. Why should you be.
IMHO, this is "free money" at these kind of prices. Financial risk, which was VERY REAL in the past, has just gone down DRAMATICALLY, and yet, the Street isn't paying any attention. That's ASININE.
"...it would HARDLY be out of the question, at some point in time, when the financing markets get better, for the CEO to make another run at the company. Imho."
But if he tries to buy you out, he is underpaying you for your shares--in other words, he'll be there for you just when you don't need or want him. How is that good for you?
It depends what price he is offering, and how quickly he is offering it. With ETM down to $5.25, and CMLS at $2.50, my attitude is, if the EMMS CEO came in and bid $2.40 again, in the next 45 days, I'd support that deal (as long as ETM is not at $10 again, and CMLS at $4.00 again, in that short period of time).
Everything is relative. If I can wait 1-2 years for $3-4, or take, maybe $2.40, in the next 1-6 months, that would always be tempting...especially with EMMS at only 70 cents now. (I can't imagine the CEO could possibly entertain an offer of less than $2.40 again.)
In any case, one who objected could always let the deal go through, and seek appraisal rights, if one feels his shares are worth more.
I should clarify that that L.A. station sale does not have to close for upwards of another 5 years or so, and Grupo Radio CAN elect to continue operating it under a LMA until then. So no guarantee that any additional debt paydown for EMMS is impending, by any means.