Next chapter of Emmis should be interesting to watch. My predictions:
Company debt will be dealt with. Look for lower rates within six months.
Monetize Grupo Radio station deal within year.
Remove zazove rep from board. Smulyan nominates two friendly board members from preferred shareholders. they are elected.
Zazove et al keep EMMSP price high enough to mark it at profit on their books.
Company stays independent because the prefs don't assent to deal. (Sometimes constraints even debt can be a good thing. Counterbalance to voting imbalance. Keeps Smulyan somewhat focused on building common equity value).
Sale/Leaseback on corporate headquarters - term sheet by year end.
EBITDA grows 25%+ in nice election year bounce.
What are your predictions?
I think the building is on the books for $30 million. Current Value is hard to get at. Presumably if it was less than book then management would've already (during 2008-09 timeframe) looked to reduce carrying value (and banks may have insisted on it). If it is worth more...not sure if they would let us know that in the near term until they focus on a sale/leaseback.
you'll look brilliant if a solar flare or alien knocks out Sirius and XM's satellites. Just take a long term approach, and if they do have the 3 or 4 options they mentioned to stay listed, you'll be in great shape at .71xx
In response to your "monetize Grupo deal" prediction - this news article is speculating that Merlin might buyout the LMA from Grupo.
As for the company staying independent, my prediction is that Smulyan will do a deal with the lock out group and get control of 67% of the preferreds.
Once the preferreds are out of the way - he will attempt another buyout/ going private deal with the help of Zell or some other fund.
Price targets just too ephemeral for predictions...I'm trying to just stay focused on predicting company outcomes to help me frame my analysis of the company.
EBITDA multiples in this industry swing wildly. At 10X's EBITDA we all make a lot of money form here. At 8X's we still do great and I suspect we could do way better than s&p at 6x's from cash generation and deal making.
Currently trading at less than 6'xs what I think EBITDA will be this year but that is with marking prefs at $30/EMMSP share.