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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jun 18, 2013 12:29 AM Flag

    My estimated break up value is $5.95.

    Not that it will be broken up, of course....but it does show the margin of safety.

    $221 M license value of stations per the 10-K (excluding the leased NY station)
    $ 45 M estimated value of magazines
    $ 30 M estimated value of HQ building in Indy
    $ 25 M NY station residual value/NextRadio value/Hungary Suit (conservatively estimated)
    -$65 M debt (less NY station SPV debt)
    -$18 M preferred stock value
    $238 M NET VALUE

    238/40 M shares = $5.95 net value per share.

    I should point out, too, that some of the license values appear conservative, based upon what some of the other big city stations have gone for, in the last year or two (including EMMS's own stations).

    Basically, with $14 million or so in annualized free cash flow, and a $66 million market cap, the company basically has a 20%+ FCF yield. Considering how LOW the leverage is now, that seems like a quite attractive valuation to me. My own target for this stock, over the next 2-6 months, is $2.10-2.45. And over the next 1-2 years, I think it could see $3-4.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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