Mkt is down some 12-13% from its early Oct peak and still heading south. Some top Wall Street people are stating that the bear mkt started in July.... Recall that I called the Sept rally as a fool's rally and one last chance to dump your stocks
Not only is recession talk at the top of the list, but some people ( like Goldman Sachs) even thinks the recession may have started in Nov/Dec...
Recall that back in Feb, I was calling for a 4th qtr 07 recession, I changed my tune in Sept and stated that perhaps recession could be delayed until 2nd qtr of 08..
Sure looks like I called it pretty accurately...
By the way, I made 12.5% on my investment porfolio last year, how y'all do????
For the record, I moved into 50% bonds, 25% stock and 25% cash during the last week of Dec ( changed from 35% cash, 35% bonds and 30% stock). My bond portfolio is now weighted heavily to intermedite term bonds -50%, 25% long and 25% short term ( changed from 75% short term last year).
I've also increased my overseas bond holding to 35% of my total bond mix, up from 20% last year....
Based on Citigroups recent press realease, I stand by my previous call not advoid financial stocks until 3rd qtr of -08 at the earliest...
As far as CEM goes, This company is in terrible shape, the newly created office of the CEO is for one purpose only, to sell this company off piecemeal, in the meantime expect the day to day operations to unwind and fall apart as exec attention is now clearly elsewhere.
I feel sorry for those left working in Middlebury and elsewhere.
Oh,, well, back to the ski the slopes of Aspen for me... Talk to you in another month or so...
You're such a penis. Always one step behind what everyone knew already. Now go look in the mirror and kiss yourself.
How's this: I predict over the next 20 years, the US economy will cycle between sporadic recessions and recovery. Wow, maybe someday I'll be as smart as you....
Break a leg.
God you are annoying; the most arrogant, self-absorbed poster I've come across. You totally missed a bunch of calls, and here you are back revising history saying you're right.
The only thing you "called" was the obvious, that the market was in trouble because of the subprime problem unravelling. You truly are Nostradumbass.
At 6.88, Chemtura is a buy, for once in its life. See, I'll actually say that, clearly, and stand by it. Then, if I'm wrong, I'll just admit it. 6.88 buy, 1/17/2008.
See, I'll even state the logic. If Peltz was in, when he got in, and you wanted some "magic", don't you have a higher expectation for "magic" now that he's in pain?
Now, will CEM cancel their dividend, and let the price plummet more, or keep it as is? And what is the Dividend Yield on the current price per share?
And then the "selling" part; with CEM's Enterprise Value so far exceeding its Market Capitalization, what do you think will happen when any part of it is sold? Will the stock go up, like it did a month ago, 20% on the mere announcement of a possible deal?
Do you think the Institutions are working towards bringing the price back to where it belongs?
Speaking of earnings, why, at the current price, do we see lot purchases in volume Joe Trader couldn't possibly afford? Why is Smart Money buying large, now?
Why was CEM a buy for you back when it was unable to afford its debt, yet here, with actual earnings, at a foward PE of 10, is it a "strong sell"?
My return last year was 12.5%, still haven't heard how your portfolio did.
Please answer quickly as I'm off for my second trip to Hawaii, its time to start learning that real estate mkt, in the next 6-18 months I think interest rates will be such ( along with recession starting to hit Asia) that it will be time to buy that beach front townhouse that I've been dreaming about.... But I still don't really understand Hawian realestate market so planning on at least 4 trips this year to check things out...
Simple my dear Watson...
Everyone has thrown in the towel on this company.
Office of the CEO is 100% focused on selling it off piecemeal.,
Peltz and institutional investors ( namely Capital Mgt ) are just trying to salvage what they can... But like any scrap/junk dealer will tell you... Forget getting what you paid, its just pennys on the dollar.
By the way, Now is absolutely the worst time to be selling a chemical company... 12-18 months from now when recession has bottomed, and dollar plummet has bottomed would be the ideal time to start shopping this dog of a company around.
Peltz better watch himself with all of his investments (like tiffanys) or he may get caught short on some of his debt in the next 6 months ( just like he got bit back in '87-88 when not so coincidentially his owned Uniroyal Chemcial, deja vous all over again)
Who really cares about the measely dividend on this stock.
Even at $6/share, 20 cents is only a 3% yield.... A money market still ( but not for very much longer) gives you a better yield.
The fact is that this company really can't ( and hasn;t been able to for a long time now) afford even this small dividend.
Remember back in the Cook days of good old Witco, when he borrowed heavily to INCREASE our dividend.... alot of good that did us huh, It signaled the beginning of the end for Witco ( as opposed to the end of the beginning)