The "geniuses" short on sbux and GMCR don't get it yet, but the problems with Verismo (principally an espresso brewer) are great news for both SBUX and GMCR shareholders.
Those who are suddenly figuring out the very expensive Verismo brewers are not very good and the espresso they make is back from the shop version and will cost two pods to make a tall (call it $3.60 including the metallic tasting powdered milk) or about as much as it does to buy one in the local sbux shop, will soon be figuring out they should try one of the new Keurig Vues, or even one of the old kcups models.
The keurig products work great, letting the drinker select for temp, strength, size, lattes, capauchino give you a choice of over 200 varieties including 135 or so coffees (incl Dunkin Donuts, Green Mountain, Newman's Own, Caribou, Bigelow and now Snapple. Hey, you may not be aware you can even get a Starbucks blend they have partnered up on with GMCR). If you want home brewed espresso, you may want to wait for the new brewer coming for that purpose... ya, GMCR is working on bringing forth those, too.
How does all that help sbux shareholders? Well, first of all sbux will continue to participate in the rapidly growing Single Serve market because SBUX pods work well on Keurig (GMCR) partnered machines. Other sbux customers who thought they were going to enjoy home brewed espresso on the Verismo's will be going back to the sbux shop for their morning Venti. This group will help restore sbux store visitation and gross and operating margins vs the crimp home espresso brewing was going to precipitate.
For GMCR shareholders, this sbux Verismo reason to remain short GMCR is already cooked under the broiler -- 600 degrees cooked and blackening by the minute. The new Vue brewers are going to benefit hugely from the Verismo fail and increasing awareness of the economic advantages of the GMCR options, and the ever expanding consumer choices under the GMCR banner will continue to demonstrate the stupidity of "einhorning" of themselves over at Greenlight Capital.
It is only our view, but we expect sbux stock will begin the claw out of the shallow hole they dug with the ill-fated Verismo as early as this week. GMCR's stock will likely soon reflect one of the best short mashings of the year as it rages back above $30 on the upcoming CC and into a smashingly great December quarter.
I think you are MAJORLY wrong on your analysis. Starbucks spent all this money promoting their lemon, people who were unaware of the existing nespresso machines are going in to buy the stinkbutts machine and leaving with a vastly superior Nespresso. I mean Nespresso is just stomping them, I mean really killing them! Even the fools who actually buy the stinkbutts machine are returning them at a rate of well over 20% and again walking out with a Nespresso machine. So not only is the Verismo a massive disaster, but they are losing massive market share to Nespresso not only in the home-brew market, but in their cafes, as after all these stinkbutt customers find the Nespresso machine they go to stinkbutts far less if at all once they know what coffee is supposed to taste like.
The Verismo will go down in history as one of the all time disasters of any major corporation.