Thanks for the nice words, Hoopust. I am not
posting much having sold 80 percent of my holdings in
SBUX at 56 5/8. I have anticipated it dropping down to
52 but the way the MM is lowering it (3 steps down,
2 steps up) so slowly, I may re-evaluate it to go
below 50. You will know when the end is near when the
stock is jerked sharply lower in one day and volume
skyrockets just like itdid when it went UP to 59 15/16
I moved my 80% proceeds into Parametric Technology
and Cendant and am prepared to take the ride of a
lifetime on these. I am currently adding to my 2 new
positions on every pullback opportunity. I will sit and
wait patiently here for these to explode.
urge you to subscribe to the Report but he has
announced after 25 years that he will no longer be
publishing it after May 99. When you call up to subscribe,
please order the Seminar Cassette Tapes (12 tapes,
charts, tools, workbook-$30 for subscribers). Listen to
the tapes. They are real eye openers and will change
the way you view the market for the rest of your
life. You will never let earnings or news stories
dictate your thinking on buying of stocks again. And you
will be immensely successful. Don't Delay! Buying on
bad news! Ya gotta love it.
You should make a killing buying this morning.
Pay no attention to the message I sent GS. That just
day trading BS which doesnt apply if your long as you
I used to count cards in Vegas when I used to to
play 21. Profitable but what an emotional, exhausting
grind. Some days you play for 8 hours and have little to
show for it. I gave it up about 10 years
No, Ney has no option strategy. I just like buying
money "in the options" because it seems that the "time
value" you are paying for is less that an "out-of the
money" option. Just a value play on my part, thats all.
I was able to stop the bleeding at 45. Still not
a bad profit from 30. I wish I was paying closer
to the third base coach when you gave the sign to
sell at 55 and change. But eh it's only
Chance my man, I'm buying right back in this am.and
looking forward to this nice Easy ride back up.
Does Ney have a strategy on options also ? How does
buying so far into the money give you a better
By the way, thanks for all the posts, gives great
insight. I got to tell you, I play cards for a living, and
it can be a grind but this stock market stuff makes
card counting seem easy.
Coffee, a luxury? Yes. But that is precisely
Starbuck's premise. That anyone, and everyone, can take a
moment from everyday life, and live a few moments of
luxury for a couple of dollars. When you're at
Starbucks, everyone is a king.
in Europe......Howard Schultz (CEO) began the
expansion in the U.S. of a great coffee experience only
after he experienced an expresso bar in Italy. Again,
it was not just the coffee that intrigued him, but
the experience as well.
Coffee is a commodity.
A luxurious experience may be be as easy to define,
in terms of fundamental analysis & stock pricing, as
Keep in mind ..... they are in the
people business, serving coffee - not the other way
However, I think, the recent EPS report is not
the main reason.
The recent weak earnings
report is due to dillution of earnings
as the result
of the agressive purchase of Seattle Coffee Company.
That in my view is good. Because, a
dillution of earnings,a trade-of for long-term growth is
The first major sell-off, because of little weaker
EPS, did not make sense at all to me. I think there
was leakage of materially
weak sales growth was
the major factor.
I saw, many cases, where
stock moves up, on lower eps due
to dillution, from
The thing that
disappointed me was the dramatic slow down
of sales growth.
If this slow sales growth remains, it will
negatively impact future earnings growth, therefore will
impact future stock market price.
that concerns me, is the deep sloping sell-off
high volumn. Technically, that is very bearish, for a
I do not think bearish sentiment is neccesarily
good for a stock.
Let's take an example, "
Repap" , A Canadian Foresty Company. There has been lots
of negative sentiment over
it's balance sheet
(too much debt.), poor coated paper out-look,
eps, over many years. The stock drifted down down
over the years from $15.00 to now pennies $0.24.
can name so many other examples of issues
I believe a person should make buying or selling
decisions base upon fundamental and/or technical
This is not the only approch.
why is bearish sentiment good for the stock? i
don't understand your reasoning. If you think that SBUX
with it's recent earnings report will go back to it's
previous levels anytime soon...you've been drinking too
much Irish Coffee.
The bearish sentiment overrunning this board is
about as sure a sign as any that we have seen the end
of the decline. That and the fact that MMs busted
below 40 to trigger all those automatic sells. Now they
will rally that stock to unload it and sell short for
another mini decline as they start the process of the
long and winding rally. Slowly, so investors dont come
charging into the market, prices will be advanced. If you
see a sharp rally it is a trap. Look for nice, slow
advances with very lite volume. Let us see what tomorrow
So far everything has happened that I have expected.
Now the rally please, over an extended period.
at that time stock was overvalued,
at 60p/e next year's earnings, where eps growth was
true that sbux extended their
franchise a lot
during those two years.
however, the same stores sales growth dropped
than half their normal rate
also, general sales
growth dropped considerbally to 25% from the norm of
those are indications to me, there is a great
of a possible fundamental change.
shocked me, of these poor numbers,
coming from a
brand-name company! Rarely
does these things occur from
strong compananies. Therefore, i dumped all
at the open this morning and switched
more of safeway which i hold long-term.
to be a long-term holder of sbux too, willing
pay premium for a quality company, untill
morning. Sbux thro' the 2 years, i held the
never saw numbers, coming even close as bad, as the
ones came out.
past years, sbux, took majar
marget corrections, merely from emotions, and not from
fundamental change. Past years, numbers
coming out were
good, but stock dropped only
from, " emotions, stock
got ahead of itself, profit taking, etc..." this is
the reason, i held sbux, for so long.
corrections. I felt comfortable with sbux, as it will rebound
and appreciate a lot more.
but,this sell off,
i think may be different?
i learned one
thing over the years, which i only
was able to
displine myself to do, only a couple
of years ago.
"don't fall in love with a stock."
i am not a
stock trader, therefore, it was hard
for me to sell
sbux this morning opening, as i had sbux for a
long-time already. And missing a big porton of the stock
i remember last week friday,
the dramatic sell-off was unwarranted. Eps dillution
from fast expansion causing small eps
caused a 12% drop. Really did not make
especially sbux price at $57 was not frofty.
there was some leakage of information where the ave.
Guy was not entitle too.
well, i guess this
supports," the inefficient market hypothesis theory ". Not
much can we do
can anyone tell me any good reasons for me to buy
back sbux again? Or for anyone to invest in
right now i tend to agree with ,"sarah96",
the message writers.
before your 5 year target...BUT your potential
price appreciation will probably be close to
Would not rule out a buy from
There is such potential
* wish there were Starbucks on the
* In more airports
* Ice cream was
available in more supermarkets
* on major college
campuses or adjacent