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Capstone Turbine Corp. Message Board

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  • froggnot froggnot Dec 22, 2007 1:27 PM Flag

    Price Prediction 2008 !!

    I have been around long enough to have been through several bubbles (e.g., two realestate bubbles, tech bubble, .com bubble, etc.)

    In May I made a decision to get into cash, and started to look for the next thing.

    At the same time my lady friend started to berate me about being GREEN.

    Well after doing some research I came to the conclusion that the "next thing" might be GREEN (this also helped with my personal relationship with my lady friend).

    Bottom line since May I have been moving some of my former realestate/tech/financial holdings into GREEN holdings.

    At this point I am up about 20% on my GREEN investments.

    So if I can get the same return on my GREEN holdings next year I will be a happy camper.

    My strategy so far has been:

    Over weight firms that have products to sell and are showing earnings potential

    Under weight firms that are in r&d, but have potential

    Buy on dips

    Don't fall in love with my choices (except for my lady)

    Be mindful that the credit and monetary issues of today will be looming in 2008.

    Be mindful that 2008 is and election year (i.e., the current administration will be pulling out all of the stops to keep the economy rolling)

    I believe there will be money to be made in the coming year, but it won't be easy.

    Good luck to all and God Bless.

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    • I agree with your outlook. I, too, have taken the same road- starting recently with FTEK, then CDTI, APD, CABN(a real spec.)and now, EXTRA long with CPST. This stock was absolutely hammered from its IPO price some years ago. The time then was not ripe - too early, pre-Gore, pre-Iceland Sheet. But Now?
      We are the birth generation of a new consciousness that is only starting to boil - its financial ramifications roiling the cellar roots of corporate strategy. The hedge funds are already playing bigtime- MM up and down to the pulse of the hot whisper. So, how do us small timers play this? Ignore the pundits and follow your instinct. Do our DD and then commit with both feet! Forget recession, forget sub-prime, forget the DOW and put a reasonable portion of our spec portfolio in green.
      Ignore the blips and keep our eyes on the prize. Anticipate the overriding direction of green stocks and go very very long for our own health (both financially and decendently).

      CPST, the company, is sound; its products are proven to be reliable and cost-saving, and it has an established global footprint (that is about to explode in China).
      CPST, the stock was broken and is now being fixed! It is a real sleeper with HUGE upside potential. The non-debt-laden green stocks with either products and/or "razor" business models are going to ride a wave of unprecedented and environmental policy-driven global need and consumption. Who knows, CPST may well return to its IPO price within the next 5 years. (What a dream . . . but who knows?) Hey, let's make some money that our children can enjoy!

      • 2 Replies to risetomorrow
      • Well said.

        The only item that I would add is the model that have used for bubble investing:

        Stage 1 - Intuition - A small group of ground floor investors recognize the viability of products within an emerging market

        Stage 2 - Anticipation - A larger group of investors and MM's start accumulating equity inventory for the next step in the cycle

        Stage 3 - Acceptance - A larger group of retail investors and institutions start trading and long term holding of the inventories aquired within step 2

        Stage 4 - Seller's market - Inventories start running low and prices go through the roof

        Stage 5 - Quality abandonment - Because of the seller's market everyone and his brother in opening up shop

        Stage 6 - Disillusionment - Because of the entrance of low quality firms the public loses confidence in their investments

        Stage 7 - Bailout - Because of the loss of confidence the public starts wholesale dumping of equities within this market

        Stage 8 - Shakeout and merger - The quality companies survive and the lesser quality companies fall to the side of the road.

        Stage 9 - On to the next thing

        Bottom line:

        In my opinion we are near the end of Stage 2(Anticipation) which still allows the participants to acquire quality equities at reduced valuations. I believe this is a good position to be in.

        Merry Christmas everyone.

      • I agree. Five stars!

    • Certainly the run that solar power companies have had over the past few months supports your position.

      I agree, regardless of the price of oil, companies that reduce fossil fuel energy consumption and are better for the environment will grow and be awarded premium valuation. Of course, they have to be soundly operated.

      I wonder if CPST is going to show some dramatic growth in the next 12 months. That's my holding commitment; if they can't show me they are a growth company in this supportive environment, I'll move on.

    • I was saying the same thing the other day. The next rally/boom cycle will be green/alternative energy and/or biotech...

 
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