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Capstone Turbine Corp. Message Board

  • hij4eduz hij4eduz Jan 21, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    Valuation

    I've owned CPST for several years--their distributed, low cost, multi-fuel power generation is a no-brainer. But with such pitiful earnings projections, it's really hard to put any fair value on this one. They definitely should be a buy-out candidate to GE or HON...

    Someone help me put some #s to earnings for 2014 & 2015.

    Sentiment: Hold

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • The market will price in markets as some first run applications prove their value. I'm assuming the area where power, heating and cooling bring the efficiency to 80% are going to be easy sells and rapid adoption rates following 3 years of results from known installations.

      1. Hotels
      2. Hospitals
      3. Small desalinations and power combonations
      4. Food Producers
      5. Oil and Gas drillers, anyone know if steam can be used in actual drilling or fracturing?
      6. Transportation - I'm less hopeful here

      7 thru 20 - Not yet known apps where power, heat, steam and cooling abilities of microturbine could all be used

      Looks like a few billion in market potential is warranted? Food production alone could be worth a couple of billion because of specialized energy, steam and heat source equals an 80% energy efficiency microturbine.

      Where the stock price will be in 2 monhs? I have no idea. I have been placing low ball bids and never pick up a shares. Would personally love to see a pullback to take a sizeable position. Noticed that there are some serious buyers that start buying in quantity when price pulls back a little. Long term? MUCH MUCH higher.

    • To me, the critical transition most likely to happen is a switch from C200 building blocks to C250. If the company makes this transition, their GM jumps and they quickly go from breakeven to a net profit of 10% of revenues or better.

      Combine that with flat fixed costs, an ongoing growth rate of 10% or better starting from $140 million, add in the chance of much faster growth or a buyout, take away the chance that a competitor will pull away its customer base, and stir.

      Or, if you prefer, ask how much closer to profitable the company is compared to three or five years ago, and ask how much that progress is evidenced in the company's market value. (A: Not much.)

    • Come on... someone give a valuation model based on something...
      2015 earnings of $.20 PE of 20 = $4.00
      2015 earning of $.15 PE of 30 = $4.50
      Buyout at 5X 2014 Sales of $200m = $1B /300m shares = #3.33/share?

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to hij4eduz
      • Here is my model, sorry cut and paste will not keep spaces. Suffice to say expect $3.94 share price in 2015.

      • 2014 1Q 24.4 9 2.2 8.8 -6.8 -6.6 2014 1Q
        2Q 35.3 14 4.9 9.0 -3.9 -4.1 2014 2Q 1.35
        3Q 40.3 17 6.9 9.2 x -2.4 2014 3Q 1.57
        144.8 4Q 44.8 21 9.4 9.5 x -0.1 2014 4Q -13.1 -0.04 1.82
        2015 1Q 48.4 23 11.1 9.7 x 1.4 2015 1Q 2.12
        2Q 52.3 26 13.6 10.0 x 3.6 2015 2Q 2.46
        3Q 56.4 29 16.4 10.2 x 6.2 2015 3Q 60.00 2.86
        218.0 4Q 60.9 32 19.5 10.5 x 9.0 2015 4Q 20.2 0.07 3.94 3.32
        2016 1Q 65.8 35 23.0 10.7 12.3 2016 1Q 3.86
        2Q 71.1 35 24.9 11.0 13.9 2016 2Q 4.49
        3Q 76.8 35 26.9 11.3 15.6 2016 3Q 55.00 5.21
        296.6 4Q 82.9 35 29.0 11.5 17.5 2016 4Q 59.3 0.19 10.59 6.06
        2017 1Q 89.6 35 31.3 11.8 19.5 2017 1Q 7.04
        2Q 96.7 35 33.9 12.1 21.7 2017 2Q 8.18
        3Q 104.5 35 36.6 12.4 24.1 2017 3Q 50.00 9.51
        403.5 4Q 112.8 35 39.5 12.7 26.7 2017 4Q 92.1 0.30 14.95 11.05
        2018 1Q 121.8 35 42.6 13.1 29.6 2018 1Q 12.84
        2Q 131.6 35 46.1 13.4 32.7 2018 2Q 14.92
        3Q 142.1 35 49.7 13.7 36.0 2018 3Q 45.00 17.33
        549.0 4Q 153.5 35 53.7 14.1 39.7 2018 4Q 137.9 0.45 20.15 20.14

 
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