I've owned CPST for several years--their distributed, low cost, multi-fuel power generation is a no-brainer. But with such pitiful earnings projections, it's really hard to put any fair value on this one. They definitely should be a buy-out candidate to GE or HON...
Someone help me put some #s to earnings for 2014 & 2015.
The market will price in markets as some first run applications prove their value. I'm assuming the area where power, heating and cooling bring the efficiency to 80% are going to be easy sells and rapid adoption rates following 3 years of results from known installations.
3. Small desalinations and power combonations
4. Food Producers
5. Oil and Gas drillers, anyone know if steam can be used in actual drilling or fracturing?
6. Transportation - I'm less hopeful here
7 thru 20 - Not yet known apps where power, heat, steam and cooling abilities of microturbine could all be used
Looks like a few billion in market potential is warranted? Food production alone could be worth a couple of billion because of specialized energy, steam and heat source equals an 80% energy efficiency microturbine.
Where the stock price will be in 2 monhs? I have no idea. I have been placing low ball bids and never pick up a shares. Would personally love to see a pullback to take a sizeable position. Noticed that there are some serious buyers that start buying in quantity when price pulls back a little. Long term? MUCH MUCH higher.
To me, the critical transition most likely to happen is a switch from C200 building blocks to C250. If the company makes this transition, their GM jumps and they quickly go from breakeven to a net profit of 10% of revenues or better.
Combine that with flat fixed costs, an ongoing growth rate of 10% or better starting from $140 million, add in the chance of much faster growth or a buyout, take away the chance that a competitor will pull away its customer base, and stir.
Or, if you prefer, ask how much closer to profitable the company is compared to three or five years ago, and ask how much that progress is evidenced in the company's market value. (A: Not much.)
That transition is still 2 years out.--They are going to test the hell out of the C 250 in S Calf.. They aren't going to make the c200 mistake and fly people all over the world to fix mistakes in design or Mfg.
Come on... someone give a valuation model based on something...
2015 earnings of $.20 PE of 20 = $4.00
2015 earning of $.15 PE of 30 = $4.50
Buyout at 5X 2014 Sales of $200m = $1B /300m shares = #3.33/share?