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Comshare, Incorporated (CSRE) Message Board

  • barkanj barkanj Sep 15, 1998 5:05 PM Flag

    reason for increase

    I used to own Comshare stock. I sold two + years
    ago at 28 with a nice gain. Then I bought back at 11
    and sold at 9 with a small loss about 5 months ago
    when Dessauer hyped the stock a little. I wish I could
    say the stock is rising because of "news" at the
    company. But it is simply going up because of the stock
    buyback. True, a one million share buyback will
    temporarily raise the stock. It could even go up quite a bit
    (to say 8). But if the company continues to lose
    money, then even one million shares less will not lead
    to earnings. In short, use the rise as a selling
    opportunity, not as a buying one. Let the company alleviate
    your pain.

    P.S. As for the "insider" buying,
    the buying is really not in large quantities.
    Crandall did buy quite a bit a while ago, and will
    probably now get out on the stock buyback. But don't take
    small purchases at low prices as much of an
    indication.

    Good luck

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • You can debate sales force, Arthur, interest
      revenue, etc. till you're blue in the face. But as I read
      the press release, license fees were up 93% in North
      America, and 81 % in the UK. BudgetPlus revenues were up
      30%. And, though reporting .01, they beat the market
      expectation by .06. That, my friend, looks like progress,
      smells like progress, and is progress.

      Even if
      Comshare reported .10, .20, or .30 per share, you and DK
      would no doubt find fault somewhere. Your agendas are
      obvious to all. Still, you both keep it interesting
      around here. I wouldn't want to be accused of "shooting
      the messenger", as sunchild is bound to accuse. So,
      please, keep it coming.

    • Happy keyin at Comshare. Corner turned like Ike. Future so bright I gotta wear shades.

    • I think going from $2.2 million in losses to
      (before interest earnings) $400 K in losses is
      substantial progress. Continuing that trend should put them
      well into positive territory in the next and
      subsequent quarters, regardless of the interest
      income.

      Why do the sales costs have to progress? And who is
      to say that Arthur wasn't more than 30%, say 40%,
      and the other 10% is growth?

    • It appears your response actually proves my
      initial point. If two quarters ago was break even with
      Arthur products, and the last two consecutive quarters
      without Arthur products have not been profitable, it
      would seem to say that Arthur was generating profits
      which covered the operating losses incurred by the
      remainder of the product line. This is not good
      news.

      Re: sales force. Even if Arthur did comprise 30% of
      the sales costs, that is still saying that there is
      no progress.

    • General Motors made money for several years on
      their financial (GMAC) operations while they brought
      their main LOB (automobiles) back to profitability.
      That's just good common business sense.

      Comshare
      selling expense was way out of line with industry ... too
      many chiefs, too few indians. 30% reduction is a good
      step in the right direction.

      This looks like
      pretty encouraging quarter to me.

    • Well, since the previous quarter had a loss of
      $2.2 million for those same businesses, I'd say the
      current $405 K is moving in the right direction. Since
      they had broken even the 2 quarters before that, I'd
      also say that Arthur had been having a significant
      impact on their earnings.

      Why the sales costs are
      down? Maybe because they aren't selling Arthur, and
      that part of the sales force isn't on the payroll
      anymore...

    • This is the 2nd quarter in a row CSRE execs are
      using an accouting gimmick to show a false profit. This
      quarter, they're using ~$400K in interest from the $40M
      JDA sale and putting it on the books as revenue. Last
      quarter, they included the $40M sale as "profit".


      That's bad business. Putting money in the bank and
      counting the interest as "profit" while your nominal
      operations run at a loss is not the way to do business. Good
      news for investors, though. The stock is (temporarily)
      up a bit and it might be a good time to cash out
      your remaining chips. I think I will.

    • So what you're saying is that while the remainder
      of Comshare's product line is currently operating at
      a loss of $.409M per quarter, the Arthur product
      line would have shown a profit. HOW? Also, if that is
      true, why sell the only profit making portion of your
      business?

      I'm afraid that your spin doesn't stick.
      I suspect that DD on the numbers should hold
      caution at best in light of this quarterly operating loss
      that continues a string of quarterly operating
      losses.

      One other question, if Comshare really is
      refocusing/rededicating their sales efforts, why is the cost of selling
      down 30% from a year ago? I realize that throwing
      money at sales doesn't make a good sales staff. But, I
      suspect that those numbers indicate a short staffed sales
      team.

    • On the other hand, without the JDA sale, they
      would have had higher revenues, probably offsetting a
      good amount of the interest income they wouldn't have
      had. The way I see it, is that they are growing the
      remaining business at this moment, and are using the cash
      to get themselves over the hump. Let's hope it
      happens that way...

    • They're all down again. The people on PSFT and
      HYSL message boards are all going crazy. I think I
      heard something hit the pavement a few moments
      ago....

      I used to come here for a good chuckle, but now
      there are so many boards to choose from!

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