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Towne Bank Message Board

  • technical_chartist technical_chartist Aug 19, 2011 11:30 AM Flag

    This could be one of my best short ideas

    Market in the Hampton Roads area will be getting clobbered with defense cuts and the Fed just handicapped this bank.

    Reiterating $8 target

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    • Here's the problem for the shorts:

      The Street doesn't know management. They are treating TowneBank stock like the ADD Guy is in charge. (I would probably short it too.)

      But he's not: The Laser Guy is.

      • 1 Reply to westnorfolk53
      • California and Virginia are the two biggest defense states. However, in CA, about 2/3 of the personnel are military enlisted - 1/3 are civilian. In VA, it's the reverse, 2/3 are civilians. So if the military reduces headcount, it doesn't affect civilians directly. Also, CA is more high tech - VA, and Hampton Roads in particular is more low tech. Most of the defense cuts will be in high tech. The Navy and Coast Guard actually want more ships. And ship building and maintenance is a huge industry in Hampton Roads. Future wars will be more tactical. Osama mission was a good example - and we all know where the Seals are based. And high tech cuts aren't certain. The Russians just unveiled a new stealth fighter - so high tech cuts might not be realistic.

        Lower interest rates are a net positive. Margins might be compressed, but the likelihood of loans being repaid is far higher. If interest rates increased, that would really be a net negative that would worry people.

 
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