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Euroseas, Ltd. Message Board

  • csbordone csbordone Jun 19, 2013 3:25 PM Flag

    esea or drys

    which will have the greatest growth going forward
    drys has many of their ship in the spot market, which i like

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    • csbordone - did you pick up any drys? she had quite a run today.

    • I have them both. They are left for dead ....The BDI is up and climbing. IF they make it this could be a win fall .......... I think they will with out to many assets given up for debt. The next conversion could be a big run.

    • I have some of each but more DRYS. DRYS current entire market cap is still less than their ownership of ORIG which is profitable and growing. The market put a negative value on their dry bulk and tanker business which I do not agree with. They have enough equity and profit from ORIG to survive any temporary downturns. If you really want to play the BDI and are hoping this is the bottom, you could invest in GNK or PRGN. GNK could be a 5 to10 bagger if they survive and refinance at the end of March. Most investors believe it will go under like EXM.

      • 1 Reply to ragingbull_si
      • It is true that ORIG is worth something but have you taken a look at their level of debt? Last time I checked they had more than 5 billion in liabilities. The whole value of ORIG is 2.5 billion and I think they have been selling it off to make debt payments. Sorry I don't have all the details, you probably know the percentage that they still own (maybe it is half). So half of ORIG is worth 1.25 billion, they will likely continue to sell shares to make their debt payments. I am not saying that DRYS is necessarily a bad investment. However, personally, I like to buy stocks that are priced well below asset value because I think it offers some downside protection. Book value on ESEA using myown realistic market prices for the ship values is $2 share. As the market continues to improve ship values will increase which will bring the company's book value closer to the $3 share reported by the company. One should also consider income and dividends. ESEA does have a record of paying a strong dividend. Cape rates are up significantly. If panamax and container ships experience the same increase (which I think they will) closer to the historical average we should be looking at good profit numbers- 15-20 million/year which should move the price to the $3-4 range. I don't know how long it will take to get there, could be 6 months, could be a couple years.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • compare the balance sheet of these two businesses. ESEA= $2 per share of equity. Add up the value of the ships (at their current low market price) add cash and euromar investment and subtract debt and you will see $2 per share. Try the same analysis for DRYS and you will be deep in negative equity territory. This company also pays a decent dividend which I am sure they will increase when they are making money again.

      Sentiment: Buy

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