The part of the article about Sappi & BCC now shows up on yahoo news articles:
The news didn't seem to help BCC's stock price today.
I can't cut&paste, I'd be in violation of subscription. But here's a link to smartmoney.com's January issue:
and you'll see under the Features column 6 stocks are listed, and some mutual funds.
Their main recommended paper stock is Sappi; the recommend paper mutual fund is the fidelity paper/forest fund. (The article lists several sectors, not just paper.)
In the discussion of Sappi, first there is a quote by Mark Turner (Turner Investments) saying something about overcapacity in paper isn't as bad as overcapacity in other areas.
BCC is listed as runner-up in the paper division, and the couple of sentences on BCC mention that the recent quarter surprized expectations, the office products distribution side is improving, and BCC raised prices on 'key' uncoated free sheeted.
Sorry I can't cut & paste it. This pretty much sums up what it says about BCC. It says a bit more about Sappi, but the article isn't really worth buying in my opinion. The article doesn't have a lot of substance (they through out some figures, but where's the beef?) If you hit a book/magazine store you might want to glance at it.
Good luck investing in 2003.
Morgan Stanley Co. (Paper & Forest Products)
Weak containerboard volumes and higher downtime seen in Q4. Cut estimates on SSCC, PKG, and TIN. Cut BCC and GP on volume and price weakness in building products.
12-17 wsj.com has a link to SmartMoney column.
The article's 15 recommended stocks for 2003 include BoiseCascade. I can't post the link (wsj.com is subscription). A couple more comments about BCC are in the article as well as something about a mutual fund related to paper/forest products/services.
The article did say some some of BCC's price increase did hold.
I'm not agreeing nor disagreeing with the article.
That's exactly the issue, there are very few interested buyers. The most attractive assets are the timberlands and the distribution units, and anyone wanting these pieces of the company wouldn't likely want much of the manufacturing assets (who would really want to buy a papermill, sawmill or plywood mill today anyway?).
If the stock price gets low enough and the US Dollar continues to weaken, look out for one of the big European companies(UPM Kymenne, Finn Forest, etc.) to make a play for Boise. The first thing they would do is put the manufacturing businesses up for sale to pay down debt, then use the distribution units as an entrance to the US market with their lower-cost products.