Just wanted to see what your thoughts were for Thursday Feb 1st.
Will we smash earnings? Will me Miss?
Will the out look be good or Bad?
Share Buy Back or Takeovers.
Every Share your thoughts!!!
I don't know about the rest of this board, but in my part of TX there isn't a stacked rig ANYWHERE. Same for the Barnett Shale region. Until I start seeing rigs stacked, I am an accumulator. This is a drilling company after all.
Reminds me of copper last winter, all the analysts were predicting copper to fall considerably during 2006. Well, it never fell.
Now they are predicting natural gas prices to fall, and everything I am reading says they will stay AT A LOW of $7 and may get as high as $9, if the cold continues or a natural disaster strikes. Plus, demand for natural gas increases every year as long as the economy is in expansion mode.
Too bad I bought this #*%! stock at $14.
Yes, you're so right... I'm a latecomer...
That's because I only bought PDC for the first time on 14NOV05 at $16.20. I presciently sold it on 27JAN06 at $21.46 in one of my best market timing moves EVER!
I bought 1000 back on 27FEB06 at 15.06, 2500 more on 22MAY06 at 13.05, and 4000 more on 06SEP06 at 14.25 for an average entry of $13.96 on 7500 shares.
So I'm currently in the hole for $7881 on this stock, not counting the gains from my former trade.
But you don't see me posting whiny-a$$ missives about what jerks PDC mgmt is for making a sound business decision almost a year ago.
One thing I think you need to realize (and I'm guilty of it, too...so don't think I'm preaching at you) is to FORGET ABOUT YOUR ENTRY POINT when evaluating the future prospects of a stock. The market doesn't give one whit about what YOU paid.... neither should you or I.
Easier said than done, I know.
I expect PDC to meet the consensus estimate of .50 / share, or beat it by 1-2 cents. I do not expect much if any commentary on the future outlook, but expect it to be OK based on the long term contracts in place for most of their rigs. They will NOT buy back any shares, and investors are wasting their time if they expect them to.
Hey FM, I agree with you on your 1-2 cents prediction, but wondered why you think a stock buy-back is out of the question? They are sitting on a lot of cash (and cash flow). Why not buy back some of the shares that they sold in early 2006 at v. high prices? Hell they could issue them back again next time the stock gets into the $20s. The amount of cash on the balence sheet hasn't moved much for a long time.
Q3 estimate for PDC is 50 cents. I expect they will beat this by 2 to 3 cents. Share price will go to $13+. We won't find out what is in store for us until they report Q4 and year end earnings in June. That is when they will give estimates for next year. According to Yahoo Finance, earnings are predicted to be flat next year. But, I expect PDC will guide upwards.