vnx's release stated their order was for 500,000 chips.
gpic's release states their order is for 285,000.
could galaxy have ordered from both companies????
cnoinvestor.... VNX has purchased ALL of Dolphin, which includes a substantial amount of 'non-gaming' business. It has been discussed publicly that these other assets are profitable, and will be sold, for a 'mid seven' figure price-tag. My take is that the net cost of the Dolphin transaction becomes minimal if anything at that point.
As far as valuing the difference between 'fee simple' assets and a license, the terms of the license will of course be of no small consequence in determining its value. YES, you are correct that when you are building a company, and one of the burningly important issues to shareholders is the potential 'enterprise value' of that company's assets... that its far better to OWN yourself, rather than have the 'limited right to practice and obligation to pay someone else'. You make my point.
Now as far as the value of GPICs 'exclusive' regarding RFID in the US ?? 'my' humble opinion is that from a practical point of view and a legal one as well, GPIC shareholders might well have a tough time feeling 100% secure about that issue.
Now add to this scenario one more issue.... that being the quality of the final product. Do you know the real differences between GPIC's and Dolphin's RFID products? I believe I do! .. And my money is on VNX.
Determining the Enterprise Value of a company can be far more elusive task by far than just multiplying the number of shares by the capitalization. But put yourself for a moment, in the position of a buyer... a buyer of not just some of the shares of a company, but the whole company. Unlike you and I, they have far different agendas and outlooks. I simply submit to you that when you step back and look at the world-wide gaming industry, it should become apparent, or at least 'my' form of logic dictates to me that consolidation is going to be essential. Relationships will be a huge part of that process.
For all of the above reasons, my money is on VNX.
Since you are interested in discussing FACTS, Let's be very clear about what VNX "owns" and what GPIC �licenses�...
� I have not seen any numbers in our payables that would describe how much the license fee per chip we pay to PGIC but normally LICENSE royalties are nominal.
� PGIC is now the 10% OWNer and Master Gaming Licenser for ALL of the Magellan RFID chips (not to be confused with casino chips).
� Does VNX have any agreements with PGIC? Nope. Does GPIC? Yep (2 of �em)
� VNX does not *yet* OWN squat � currently they are still a reseller with 5-person sales staff. VNX made a DOWN PAYMENT of cash and stocks (non-refundable: $750K + 1 MILLION shares of VNX) to Dolphin, a plastic casino chip manufacturer and they have a definitive agreement to buy in the 3rd quarter for an additional 3,285,715 shares of VNX common stock. (that does not include the shares and warrants VNX used to get the loan to remain solvent and to buy Dophin)
� To my knowledge, Dolphin has not sold any licenses to any other manufacturer for that process. So there is no additional income derived from this exclusive manufacturing process for which there has been ONE sale (although it was a large one)
� When the deal is consummated, all VNX will OWN is a plastic manufacturer and a patent on a RFID manufacturing process of embedding a SPECIFIC Magellan 13.56MhZ RFID chip into a injection-molded casino chip. Upon the closing of the transaction, VNX will issue 3,285,715 shares of our common stock (the Consideration Shares) to the Sellers of Dolphin with a guaranteed market share price 3.50 � 5.00. VNX has had a hard time keeping it�s nose above the 3.50 mark
1. As a VNX advocate, when would you guess (year/quarter) that VNX will turn PROFITABLE? They have not managed to run a profitable business in the last THREE YEARS
In fact, their loss has been progressively widening Year-over-Year.
How long will it take VNX to choke down the loan necessary to remain solvent and to buy Dolphin? Not to mention the dilutive affect of all of the purchasing shares (for both the loan and for the purchase of Dolphin) that will eventually enter the market at a sub-5 dollar price (many @ 2.50).
2. As an investor and not (I assume) a VNX business owner, what do you predict the share price will be over the next few quarters/next few years (current price 2.47)?
Cranberry - what about the amount that VNX had to pay for the right to own versus license? How long will it take them to make that back and will the interest expense VNX will have due to the Dolphin deal be more than what they would have paid if they were to license rather than own?
Owning only makes more sense than licensing when you plan on selling later or you have the cash flow to pay up front for it. VNX has none of those. Getting an exclusive in the U.S. due to licensing is worth more than owning the technology that has competition.
Believe what you wish. I stated facts.
Would you like to dispute them? Feel free!
How about trying 'own' vs. 'license' issue on for size? Kind of like 'owning vs. renting' now isn't it? Lots of fun trying to capitalize on a rental. Just may go a long ways towards answering your 'valuation' model frustrations.
As far as the future of rfid chips in Macau?
Oh, never mind... you'll 'get it' eventually.
as usual cranberry you only give part of the story. You forgot these.
Fact: Other then Sands macau expansion the new casino openings for 2006 are complete concerning chips deals. Unless some already open casinos switch to RFID that is the end of Macau Casino chip orders for 2006.
Current Score: GPIC 3.33 wins and .666 loses. VNX the opposite.
I sold my last position (2850 shares) on Tuesday for a nice 4 week profit of 20% + and hope to jump back in soon. My portfolio has been spanked the last two days; it�s glowing red. This board has some very knowledgeable posters; I guess some are affiliated with the gaming industry. Thanks for all the great info and links; I especially like the Gaming Floor and the tons of gaming news articles from around the world. Thanks again, I�ll���� be back. This is the link for the Gaming Floor, maybe some of the newbies don�t know about it.
*What do you call the temporary price decline in GPIC.
<<<"Opinion / Investors are slowly beginning to understand the difference.">>>
Do you mean the difference between profits and losses?
Getting an order is not much of an accomplishment in and of itself. It's not uncommon for companies trying to break into a new line of business to lowball their prices so they can get an order, any order. Nobody wants to be the first adopter. Everyone looking to order casino chips is looking for references - unless of course you'll cut them a good price for taking the risk and being your first reference. <wink wink, nudge nudge>
VNX is going to need a lot of *good* contracts to start actually making a profit. Look at the numbers...are you still slowly understanding the difference?
First Plaques and Jetons are more commonly used in Europe and Asia than in America. Plaques and Jetons are also used in higher denomination that chips and are different shapes than casino chips. Plaques are usually square. While VNX has won the chip contract GPIC has won the Plaques and jetons RFID order. So it's a split contract.
You have to read between the lines in the VNX announcement. Such as this:
"Galaxy Entertainment Group Places Initial Order in Excess of Half Million (13.56 MHz) RFID Casino Chips"
The key words in that sentance is "Initial Order". Now we know the rest of the story.