I ran my earnings spreadsheet for GPIC for Q4 and Q1(07) and am estimating the following:
Q4 results (estimated): Rev = 21.6M (vs 16.2M in Q4-05) Gross Profit = 8.59M (vs 6.30M in Q4-05) Op Inc = 3.89M (vs 1.42M in Q4-05) Net Inc = 2.96M (vs 2.04M in Q4-05) EPS = $0.36 (vs $0.25 in Q4-05) The main variable in this last year was a phantom "income tax benefit" of +0.45M, typically this is -0.25M to -0.75M. 3Q04 we also had a benefit. As far as I could tell this is due to checks/balances from French taxes in escrow?. I didn't include this in Q406, I had a conservative guess of an expense of -1.0M (about the max recently). I did the same for Q107.
Q1 results (estimated): Rev = 22.9M (vs 18.3M in Q1-06) Gross Profit = 9.77M (vs 7.74M in Q1-06) Op Inc = 4.94M (vs 3.40M in Q1-06) Net Inc = 3.97M (vs 2.08M in Q1-06) EPS = $0.49 (vs $0.25 in Q1-06)
Main driver for this is increased sales in Asia. I'm estimating the following Asian sales: Q107 (est) = 13.15M (just added a small amt to Q4 to be conservative) Q406 (est) = 12.65M (trying to follow a trend?) Q306 (act) = 11.47M Q206 (act) = 9.36M Q106 (act) = 8.52M Q405 (act) = 7.49M Q305 (act) = 5.36M
I did a P/E range study on trailing 4 qtrs and found in the last 6 months we've been in the 18-28 range. Forecasting earnings with this P/E range, GPIC share price should be $18-28 in Apr-May 07 and then $22.5-35 in May-Aug 2007. So my 6-mo target is about $34 and 12-mo is about $42, but we need to have continued strong Asian sales or a large uptick in US sales. HF-RFID is the key variable to this strength in sales.
Telling u from experience with this stock..... ...it was at 25 not to long ....and they r in better shape now.......and with earnings around the corner and RFID chips gaining steam...we could finally get to 30...... so i would cover and go long............. NO ONE IS SELLING GPIC EXCEPT ENDY...and he needs the money to live