93,389,211 shares x 4.38 (closing price 11/16) = $409,044,744
8,103,401 (shares) x 8.99 (closing price 11/16) = 72,849,575
EGT has a market cap 5.615x greater than GPIC ....That is INSANE!
1. I am certainly not a "big" guy (thou my doc keeps telling me to lose weight). I have access to no more info than yourself.
2. I do not see egt and gpic as competitors. egt future revs not dependent mainly on rfid.
3. Macroeconomic theorems: Gaming recession proof. China gaming growing. EGT now owned by Chinese. Manufactures in China (low cost). Makes products for Chinese market. Huge insider ownership. All FACTS.
Conclusion: NO WAY these guys are going to lose money. Sales outside the Far East just gravy. (Re dilution: of course pps will be lowered as result. Cost of doing business.)
4. Presently waiting for the next leg up. May reallocate additional resources at that time.
5. btw I never said this stock was going to the moon. $5 - $10 is what I always posted. Without dilution of course the pps would be higher (well actually not; company would be on way to chapter 7. Actually kinda amazing that did not happen years ago.)
6. Microeconomics: I'll let you, Fruitvale, and pj ponder the numbers game.
7. In retrospect you can see I was not pumping; just honestly posting what I thot the future to be.
I have nothing additional to add to the conversation. Future number$$$ will tell the story. Good luck. Will revisit down the line. Hope gpic gets back to 25.
oh yeah: vwpt.......
"...That's why many of the small guys get killed in the market. They THINK they know the relevant info. They THINK they have the relevant facts to do due diligence... "
Yes, I am one of the little guys and I have made my share of mistakes along with my successes. And 'YES" I DO think that a company's financials are relavant facts. I guess it is also fair to say that the 'Big Guys' make proportionally BIG mistakes too, often through huberis.
Another 'fact': Many professional money managers and MF managers cannot/do not beat the S&P. So evidintly just being BIG does not make you RIGHT, or agile enough to navigate well in a choppy market - it just make you BIG.
With all of your access to 'additional information' that we 'small guys' are not privvy to, did you take full advantage of the 2 weeks of the 5.00+ trading days at the beginning of this month? As of this message EGT is sitting at 3.99 (with what seems to be strong support at/around 4). Still a double over this time last year and nothing to be ashamed of. But with all of that private access to superior information, you saw that 20% drop coming I'm sure and made the best of it...
Enough with the barbed goading, OK?...we share nothing by it. If you would like to make your final retort, feel free. You have my parthian shot above.
Hopefully we can move on from here to some more contructive conversation. I'll start.
Honest Question: Given the committed refocus of EGT to EGM plament and management in PAC-ASIA, do you really see EGT and GPIC as true head-to-head competitors?
IMO, your EGM floor space competitors are IGT and Aristocrat. The Dolphin purchase turned out to be a financial dead end for VNX, so much so that they went another way just a few months later in order to survive. In fact they scrapped Sr Management and got absorbed by Elixir and let NEW management chart a better financial course for the company. At face value, the current EGT EGM plan seems to be much more accretive to the company bottom line. How much better? Time will tell. If it wern't for the extreme share dilultion, I would say you had a home run*.
(* That small guy opinion is solely based on my limited access to 'real' information <grin>)
So CC, you said, "They THINK they have the relevant facts to do due diligence." Are you saying that company financials and share dilution have nothing to do with share price?
I do not think that EGT will go BK - especially now that they have a regular stead income stream (something new for the company as of this quarter). I DO think that it does not warrant it's current 700M+ market cap give that the company has ZERO profits.
Do you have the "knowledge", that you claim that we lack? If so, you have YET to to share any of YOUR 'RELEVANT FACTS' about either EGT or GPIC. Only your earlier GUESS as to PPS... and to your credit, it did reach 5 bucks for a short time. But can you tell us WHY it did?
Also, did you sell your EGT shares when the PPS went to 5+ and lock in that big profit, or are you still holding? Adding shares? If you held, or are still a buyer then you must have SOME basis for that action. What is it?
Please share. And this time try to stay on topic.
Since you choose to be personal, let me share the same lack of courtsey with you. For the record, your other "strong-buy" VWPT pick is WAY underwater (isn't your cost basis well above 2 bucks?) and it is still facing delisting come mid-March. Maybe a 1:5 reverse split will pull it out of the hole - but so far sales have not. I've been watching it and following their (seeingly good) aquisitions but ever since you first mentioned it on the VNX board months ago - it has been a investment money loser and has been a company that has yet to show a profit since 2005.
Will it turn around? time will tell.
So we ALL have some bad picks, or good picks with bad timing in our portfolio, don't we?
You should be focused on the speeding train that is bearing down on GPIC and its shareholders...
The last 5-6 trading sessions have been like a door or window being held open during a fire. A real escape hatch.
GPIC longs talked about $1.00 per year earnings in the past..what was the last quarter .05
The company is quite vunerable, the shorts know it and will use the whole Lead Issue to make a lot of money driving the stock down to the $5 range and maybe then cut it in half again ($2-3).
By the time multiple Class Action Lawsuits are filed and a forced recall of older Paulson chips is announced it will be a little too late to get out.
While I don't have a crsytal ball I see these events in the very near future.
Is the above senario fair? Hell no!
One thing I know for a fact the markets are not fair, honest or sympathetic....
I'm waiting on the sidelines also waiting for the mess to clear. I was worried in April 2007 when the earnings report was delayed that Chinese sales were waning, and the (at the time) California lead (rhymes with dead not bead) litigation would dump on us at any minute. That litigation was referenced in the 2Q06 10-Q as I recall. If RFID ever picks back up, I might get in, but there looks like a good bit of risk right now. I got in at $12 in Feb 06, dumped some out at $19-25 that summer, and finally dumped at $18-$15 in April/May 07. Made a bit of cash overall, but wished it would have continued going strong. Had fun going to at least one shareholder meeting in 06, and got a nice GPI hat from Melody and met Charlier and Endy. Good luck if you stay in!
"One thing I know for a fact the markets are not fair, honest or sympathetic.... "
That is all true and I appreciate and respect your perspective. I still think that there is a profit to be made from here and that the lawsuit(s) will prove irritating but not substintiated.
Since you are out of GPIC, what are you looking at?
From EGT 10Q
"The number of shares of registrant�s common stock outstanding as of November 9, 2007 was 93,389,211"
look at the very top of the document where the "checkboxes" are.
FWIW, 300M (!) shares have been authorized....
You need to be careful when reading the EGT PR. They use the phrase "...WEIGHTED AVERAGE share count of 45.8 million shares..." which is a MUCH lower number than the actual outstanding share count.
To be fair, it is a relevant number to use within a quarter (or other short timeframe) where there is a lot of share activity (warrants, grants, options, buybacks, etc) but it does not give you an accurate overall picture.
The REAL number of outstanding shares is ~93M
Note: As an investor, EGT share price activity has not been tied in any way to the ability of the company to generate any profit at all (-5.88/sh for 2007 ...so far) or how diluted the shares have become. Those investors who bought last year @ sub-2/share are VERY happy this year.
I am simply stating that EVENTUALLY everything comes into balance and the company will have to demonstrate a POSITIVE EPS to justify it's share price.
Will you be able to make money on the long side between now and then? If history is an indicator of the future, (depending on your timeline)that answer is "yes". I would watch it carefully though.
GPIC (IMO) offers a MUCH safer and smarter play. Low float/Low authorized share count, REAL earnings...GREAT Backlog.
Do your own DD and come to your own conclusions.
"GPIC (IMO) offers a MUCH safer and smarter play [comparison to EGT]. Low float/Low authorized share count, REAL earnings...GREAT Backlog.
Do your own DD and come to your own conclusions.
But that's not the entire story. At $20+ Kidecar felt GPIC was going higher. Likewise at minus $2 kidecar thot egt (then vnx) was going in the dumpster.
Some of us could care less re # shares, (current) earnings, ta da ta da ta da...........we're not smart enough to work all the numbers.......all we care about is pps.
EGT goes higher
GPIC ?? - I have no position and no opinion