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National Fuel Gas Company Message Board

  • zjxn06 zjxn06 Jul 30, 2012 9:12 AM Flag

    Oil and Gas industry writing down billions in U.S. shale gas assets

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    • It sounds good..your analysis..By the way..children will do well IF their parents leave them enough!! It is the grandkids that might suffer..but we, wont be here..unless I'm wrong!! Semper Fi..Spent some time at Chu Li in Nam..

    • Sounds like you got to see SE Asia in the 60's. I am 67 so I went to NAM late 60's. Got a chance to finish college first.

      Natural gas is a game changer. We also have a lot of coal and oil. As all commodities are developed there will be a boom in the economy and the market will go up at least 10 times. The same thing has happened in the 1920's, 1950 - 1966, and 1982 - 2000. In each case commodity prices dropped and the market ran up about 12X. You would have been called an idiot if you predicted that the DOW would go from the 600 - 1000 bound range in 1982 to 14000 in 2000. I just read that only 14% of parents think their children will do as well as they have. 15 years from now this will all be a bad dream.

      If you do not believe me, you can look at commodity indeces and stock market graphs going back to 1900's. During the 3 1900's cycles commodieties killed the economy and the market. When there is substantial investment in mines, farm land and oil and gas assets commodiy prices plunge. At that point nobody will want to invest in commodities, which eventually leads to the next down turn. Average cycle is 34 years, 17 for commodities followed by 17 for stocks. Because of credit issues in 1930 the 20's stock market only lasted 10 years and the commodities market lasted over 20. In the 30's even though no one was buying much, commodoity prices never really dropped.

      Based on past cycles the DOW should move up to the 120K - 140K range. That would put it relative to the 2 bull markets in the 20th century.

    • I'm not making this stuff up.

 
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