GPL has formed a Symmetrical Triangle. Indicators show that we are in oversold levels, but not the extreme oversold. MACD has not confirmed divergence to the upside yet but RSI, Stochastic & W %R shows that we are definitely in oversold territory. A break above the top trend line is what we want to see as we head into the fall.
Robo, you asked my take on PZG's chart. I had a downside target of 2.06 which has now been met, but could easily be retested or even beaten. I bought back a bunch of shares at 3.50 when it looked like we were breaking up from an inverse H&S, but was wrong. Worse I only took a loss on half of those shares and rode the other half down. I'm back in it heavily now (for me) at 55K shares. Still have a bunch of shares bought in '08 for .56 which makes it easier to ride these deep corrections. The miners, especially the Jrs do not always follow technical patterns very well. They can, and have, exploded to the upside on any given day without the charts giving warning. Sometimes you have to go by their story in the long term. When I am establishing a new position there is no tolerance for loss over 4%. Established, long term positions take a hell of a correction to get out of if I still believe in the share's value and company's prospects. I try to always have a trading plan on each trade. Following the plan helps keep emotion and ego out of the mix. It is still very hard to take a loss when I believe in the company.
Now give me a minute to tout my #1 miner - Jaguar Mining. JAG has had a rough year as it has been financing the development of new mines in Brazil. Production levels have seen them post positive net earnings the last two quarters despite the continued high CapEx spent on developing new mines. Last week they posted Q2 earnings that beat estimates by 200-300% depending on the metric. The chart has formed a good bottom pattern that it has not broken out of yet. It is worth your time to do some DD on. It has been a good one to trade the last few months - buying dips and selling spikes. The 75K shares I have now will be held until we start hitting some of the upside targets on breakouts - or unless POG breaks under key support.
Nothing about any of these PM miners is written in stone. They all depend in part on the price action of the commodity they mine, movement of the broader markets, and developments within their own operations. As with any other trade, the key is to limit losses while letting winners run. The winners in this sector can easily run 400%, but they can also correct 50% or more. Before 2008 timing was not all that important. Now it is and using TA is one of the tools I depend on out of necessity.
i still think we can hit $5 next 2 months...but this "test" of patience for people owning miners is running thin. mgh and pzg....all these gold miners are trading like gold is 1200. it's just ridiculous. SEC ain't doing anything. holding miners is painful. i believe we will be rewarded...but when? come on..karma HAS to be in our side after how long these crooks have shorted miners to such a extreme level for 6 months.
i think the short miners-long gold is still obviously going on. it's just wacky to see miners this low with the price of gold/silver today.
(sigh). i am sick of TA.
we keep zip zagging back and forth. i been wondering if i should just sell at 3.8 and get out. i mean eventually gpl HAS to go higher if silver goes to 45-50? because reading the COT report...silver will be VERY bullish from now to a couple of weeks. just read harvey organ. Silver most likely will be 45-50 range 3 weeks from now...but will gpl STILL trend under 4?
very frustrating. i would figure we would go over 4 with 50 dollar silver. i have hopes. head and shoulders are not good. i will feel much better if we close above 3.2 tomorrow.
if gpl can't cross 4 with 50 dollar silver lol this will just be a good trading stock. come on gpl. we been patient for 5 months!!!!!!!!!
"What did they say about stop losses in the class that you took?"
What they teach regarding stop loss is that any trade you are looking to enter you are looking for a minimum of 3 to 1 ratio reward to loss. So if your target is to make $3.00 on the trade you are prepared to to lose $1.00. If you abide by this rule consistently you will be profitable because of course, if you make a minimum of $3.00 on every winning trade you would have to be wrong on 4 trades before you would see a loss and even that loss would only be $1.00. Make sense? It is all about risk to reward. Even having taken this course I still do not always abide by it this rule, and when I don't I usually always get burned. Taking a loss in a trade is always the hardest thing to do even if small. But it is all ultimately based in emotion. It is only when you learn through time and experience to separate your trading from your emotions that you will become a better trade making decision based on facts rather than emotions. We hate being wrong, that is only human. Although I am getting much better and that too comes from time and experience and being sure of your TA and other factors.
The key to choosing your entry and exit levels is first and foremost about looking for good previous supply/demand levels and support/resistance levels. For demand you are looking down and left for previous demand levels on the chart for supply I'm looking up and left on the charts to see where there was previous sellers. Good supply or demand is most often determined by looking at daily chart candles. I am looking for candlesticks in these areas that show nice long extended range candles, green in demand zones and red in supply zones because they clearly show either aggressive buying or selling. Just doing this alone even without indicators you can be successful because the charts don't lie they always show where there was previous buyers and sellers, supply/demand/support/resistance. But you are also buying or shorting into these areas in conjunction with what is happening in the broader markets. Although my stock may enter into a demand level where I am expecting buyers for a long position, if the broad market that day is weak and selling off that day I may not take the trade. This is for stocks on the Nasdaq, NY, DJIA etc. For the miners I will watch to see what the GDX and HUI are doing as the miners tend to track their movement, although their movement can also be influenced by the broader markets as we've seen recently. More recently I have started to focus a little more attention to understanding and using a few other indicators such as RSI, Stochastics, Williamd %R and MACD. RSI and Stochastics & W %R work quite well for determining extreme overbought/oversold conditions. MACD for trend direction and changes. All this is then combined with overall trend, charts patterns, such as H & S, Symmetrical Triangles etc. and overall market sentiment.
Hope that helps, Robov.
The problem with TA is you can always find technical indiocators that contradict your pet indicators. For example, the Point and Figure Chart method suggests GPL will drop to $2.25 ("bearish price objective").
If it does drop to that level, it'll be a fantastic buying opportunity because GPL's fundamentals are sound.
BTW, I'm a long. I have owned GPL for about 6 months and added 2000 shares at $3.15 on Friday.
"Shoot, there are so many forces at work right now that it is really difficult to determine where we're going from here."
It's is and will be a bit of a crap shoot the next few weeks for sure because of the uncertainty and volatility in the broader markets right now. We may not have hit bottom just yet, although, I have a friend that's been in the markets for 30+ years that feels the pullback will be around 15% 20% tops and I believe we are already at or close to the 15%. The circumstances are completely different from the 2008 meltdown so there is no comparison that way. The key with so many of the junior miners right now is that they have been beaten so far down that there are some amazing deals out there right now and if, as everybody is anticipating, PM prices continue to rise this only adds to the bottom line value of the miners because in the end it is all about profits for share holders.
I haven't looked at the GDXJ, mind you, I did take some time to look at it now and it is pretty much a carbon copy of the GDX & HUI which is what I monitor as reflection of where the miners are going. All of them have been in a consolidation phase since the beginning of the year and are slowly approaching the upper levels of previous resistance. Given that all speculation is that the metals will continue higher, fall traditionally brings more buyers into the metals, volume as you say has and is increasing as we head out of the summer doldrums and we are starting to see divergence in some of the indicators is encouraging. As well, as word of increasing profits and future earnings for the JM sector is staring to get out and into the thick heads of the institutions as to the "undervalued" JM stocks right now, they are starting to pay a little more attention to the potential for some great returns in this sector. So in my mind some core positions well placed among a number of miners heading into the fall should pay some handsome profits by the end of the year, especially if metals continue higher and the GDXJ, GDX & HUI can get a breakout and move higher out of it current consolidation phase.
For those of us that have been patient, are day should be coming soon.
Shoot, there are so many forces at work right now that it is really difficult to determine where we're going from here. Im leaning towards the thinking that it really depends on what the overall mkt does from here; even more than what gold/silver does. The mkt may not have bottomed yet but short term may bounce another leg and then sell off lwr. If that occurs we could suffer some technical damage no matter what gold/silver does. Conversely, PM stocks have recently been showing signs of divergence from broad mkt therefore they may not drop as much as previous times. Long story short, since GPL has been moving in tandem with the GDXJ, if the etf loses between 32 - 30 (major support), we could suffer some technical setbacks. If we hold 32 in the short term, which weve been bouncing off like a basketball for awhile now, i really think were moving higher for the next leg up really soon.....2wks maybe...give or take. If it can get beyond 38ish, thats the first hurdle. From there if we can breach 40 - 41ish with volume and hold a retest of that area, we are definitely moving up another leg. If youll notice, volume has already started to increase significantly for the last wk or so to levels we havent seen for ahwile. If it keeps up, that is a very good sign we're ready for a move up. I strongly suspect that ever since GDXJ (and GDX) broke out of its ascending triangle back last October and till now, its been consolidating and preparing to go higher, hence the divergence from the broad mkt and gold and silver at moments during that period. The caveat is though, the broad mkt cant drop "significantly" more or they will sell the PM stocks even more no matter what. I dont think that will happen because of the recent Fed announcement and the suspicion that a large QE3 is in the works both here in Europe. If this all occurs which all will eventually, I think all PM stocks are gonna rock and roll big time. From other boards ive heard that during the recent conference call for earnings, it was mostly institutional reps asking questions which supposively is not the norm for junior miner producers and that this could be a sign that institutions are preparing to move even more into the PM junior sector which if true.........nice future price coming soon.
All right all, just spent an hour typing out some further analysis just to have it disappear into the ether when I hi the post button, so, here goes again. First an updated chart showing a declining trendline in volume are.
Elcaribes your 2.25 target for me was most likely to happen here on this chart
when we got the bounce off our second bottom of 2.52. If it had broken down through that level then, you can see on the chart that 2.25 would be very close to the downward trendline.
What I see now is a very nice Symmetrical triangle. Here are some stats form Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com
Important Bull Market Results
Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 16 out of 23; 15 out of 21
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 9%; 13%
Average rise/decline: 31%; 17%
Throwback/pullback rate: 37%; 59%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 66%; 48%
Price trend. Can be any direction leading to the chart pattern. CHECK
Shape Triangular. Prices move between two converging trendlines. CHECK
Trendlines. Two trendlines bound prices; the bottom trendline slopes up and the top one slopes down. CHECK
Crossing. Price must cross the pattern from side to side, filling the triangle with price movement, not white space. CHECK
Touches. Price must touch each trendline at least twice, forming distinct valleys and peaks. CHECK
Volume Trends downward 86% of the time. CHECK
Breakout. Upward 54% of the time and 75% of the way to the triangle apex (upward breakout) and 73% of the way for downward breakouts. YET TO BE CONFIRMED.
Here are some price targets post breakout. I am going to use 3.80 as our price breakout, very close to elcaribe's 3.75 reversal, and an area where we have, with the exception of the bounce to 4.00, had resistance twice in the last month. Based on Bulkowski's figures our upside breakout target should between .77 & .97 above the 3.80 breakout. That would give us a price target of 4.57 - 4.77. These are very reasonable price targets for GPL if and I say if we can get the breakout. Either way we want to add .77 - .97 to whatever our breakout is above the upper trendline. I think we will know by the end of next week, although we could get resistance again and come back down for one more bounce off the bottom trendline at around 3.00 -3.10. Fundamentally everything is leaning towards an upward breakout as opposed to a downward breakout. But as you all know nothing is guaranteed in this game, so do not take what I am saying to the bank(no pun intended). This is only my observation and opinion.
I feel better now, I bought in @ $3.35 before it went to the $4's.....we shall see next week, the turning point should be there. If it keeps moving upwards, I will buy even at higher prices, this company has potential to become another AG story.