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Great Panther Silver Ltd Message Board

  • yankee1steve yankee1steve Feb 17, 2013 9:58 PM Flag

    Commercial Long makes JPM hard to cover shorts.

    Read this from turdmetalsreport website:

    The only thing that stands out and the one thing that nobody is discussing is the Commercial Long position. It is extraordinarily high. Easily 60-70% higher than you would expect it to be, based upon history. And because it is so high, the Two Big Bad Guys have been unable to cover shorts in silver as they have in gold. I cannot stress enough how odd this is but don't take my word for it, go back and look for yourself. By this time in the price cycle, the Comm Long position would/should have "normally" contracted to 30,000-35,000. Instead, it's 52,182, UP nearly 6,000 contracts just last week! All of this commercial buying prohibited JPM from covering and, instead of a gross short position in the 70,000 range, The Silver Cartel is buried under 98,979 shorts, also UP last week.

    On the surface this is extremely bullish and is most likely indicative of a "civil war" in the silver pit. One thing we must be wary of, though...What if JPM is clandestinely building a massive spread position, like they often do in gold and, just as they manipulate gold, they plan to begin creating air pockets in silver by legging out? Since we have no way of knowing, we must be aware of this possibility. Again, though, much more likely is the idea of "civil war", where JPM is trapped as the only remaining firm providing naked paper. The other commercials are buying it all up and forcing the noose ever tighter. This is akin to what happened to Bruno Iksil, their "London Whale". Once word got out that he had built an untenable position, the smaller "sharks" circled in for the kill. We'll see where we go from here but it certainly looks like this coming Friday's CoT will show a continuation or even exacerbation of this trend. Strange days. indeed....

    So here are your charts as we enter a new week. I have done my level best to show you exactly where I think we are and where I think we're going. In gold, note first that the daily RSI has now fallen all of the way to 30. Though some spillover selling is possible early week, far more likely is a snapback rally to alleviate this highly oversold position. I'm still looking/hoping for one quick spike to $1580 or so but, regardless, I think we are just about done with the carnage.

 
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