company burn rate, with zero revenue is $8M a year. Focalin is approved and other doasges are also approved pending exclusivty from others. In 2 years, generic will capture 75% of market share of this drug with 4 players and 50% reduction in price. If you do the math, that would be about $75M revenue for Par and IPCI and if you assume 15% royalty, it would be about $11M .. now drop it another 30% and you get $8M a year. So, IPCI will be breakeven for the next 10 years (2014 might be lumpy as they have exclusivity, but only 15mg and 30mg)
Now, talk about Rexista. Targeting a $2.5B market share with IPCI and partner sales expected to be around $500M a year. IPCI will find a partner for this drug and FDA approval makes negotiations from a position of strength. I expect partner to pay up to $150M milestone payments + 20% royalty on sales.
by the way, Rexista is not trying to solve cancer where you wonder will it work or not. Rexista works.
So, if I were you, I would buy here or lower if it goes for your retirement.
Just 1 FDA rejection on 1 drug for other companies has destroyed those bio stocks. That's no bash, that's a fact.
And you are telling me there was 8 in this pipeline so chances of failure and FDA rejection are mutiplied 8 times??? Is that what you are telling me? And you are overjoyed about that fact as an investor???
These are mostly generic formulations, thus the "A" in ANDA (Abbreviated New Drug Application). Chances of approval of each one is extremely high. The formulatons that will take longer and require actual trials include Rexista which is to mitigate potential abuse of Oxycontin. Once approved, it would be a big seller, I believe.