For shareholders looking for a more productive Q2 - companies which gain a listing in the Russell 3000 almost invariably experience significant share price appreciation in Q2 driven by automatic share purchase by funds which track the Index. Insmed (INSM) would appear likely to be included this year, and there was significant accumulation concurrent with inclusion in 2009.
Worth noting that Insmed's market cap on April 3 2009 would have qualified the Company for eventual RI inclusion even had it dropped 33% from there. But the market cap had almost doubled from there by the end of May, the data capture point which determines the new membership, and had almost trebled from there by June 19, a week before the funds which track the Russell 3000 were due to buy their shares.
Many shareholders at the time assumed that the sustained accumulation was in anticipation of favorable Phase II data from the label expansion study of iPlex as a therapy for MMD. But if that was the justification for the increase in the market cap in 2009, what would that tell us about a reasonable market cap for the Company today, when it is already sitting on Arikace Phase II data which evidences efficacy in an inhaled antibiotic never before seen at Phase II or Phase III?
Q2 2009 -
1. FDA approved (2005) iPlex for Severe short stature - commercialization prohibited in the U.S., development prohibited in Europe.
2. Phase II - iPlex label expansion for MMD - data expected mid-year (disappointed).
3. Approximately $123 million in cash etc.
4. Anticipated cash burn - unknown, pending the outcome of a strategic review.
1. FDA approved (2005) iPlex for Severe short stature - commercialization prohibited in the U.S., development allowed in Europe.
2. Phase II / III - PremIplex for Complications of Prematurity - scheduled completion this December (Premacure study).
3. Phase III due to commence in June - Arikace for CF pulmonary infection.
4. Phase III due to commence in August - Arikace for NTM infection.
5. Clinical, regulatory, laboratory and administrations facility.
6. Approximately $100 million in cash etc.
7. Anticipated cash burn - primarily the following clinical trial expense (including the external and internal costs associated with each study) -
$15 - 20 million - CF / US $20 - 25 million - CF / EU $10 - 12 million - NTM $15 - 20 million - Long term safety