We beat the streat yet again. Give the conservative guidance for next year. Stock split coming this november when they announce another 20% dividend hike. Stock will be about 85 by that time. I love this boring company.
I agree with most of what crk2912 wrote, however I disagree with the assessment of the probability that "they announce another 20% dividend hike."
In fact, BDX has not had a 20% dividend hike since December 2004, when the increase went to $0.18, from $0.15. At the risk of presenting mind-numbing numbers, the increase in December 2006, to $0.245, from $0.215, was ~ 13.95%. Even the December 2005 dividend increase did not meet the ongoing assumption of 20%; although at ~ 19.44%, it was reasonably close.
My conclusion? A downward trend in the annual percentage increase in BDX's dividend has been in effect for the past 4 years. Given a continually growing dividend "base", I don't see a reversal of an ongoing downward trend in the near future. I believe 20% more than the current rate of $0.245, or $0.294, is wishful thinking. Of course, as a shareholder, I'd be delighted if BDX were to prove me wrong in December 2007.
Joe your actually probably right on the dividend. In November They will probably take it to 1.10 annually which is a little bit more than 10%. Merrill Lynch actually estimates that they are only going to take it to 1.08. We shall see, With the cash flow and earnings growth they are seeing there is a lots of room for raising the divy. As long as they are growing earnings at a 11-13% clip, I wont beat up the BOD to bad. Heres to another great year. Split comes in November IMO.
They actually upped guidance for this year to like 3.77 which really probably means more like 3.85-3.90. Ludwig always goes with conservative guidance, so when they look for 11-13% EPS growth, I look for 13-15% EPS growth.