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Becton, Dickinson and Company Message Board

  • megandaniels30 megandaniels30 Dec 27, 2008 12:14 AM Flag

    BDX, a good investment in 2009?

    I am split in BDX, with heavy FX exposure, the company will not benefit from a strong dollar. However, I found this piece that suggests BDX in the medical technology and supplies industry. Do you think it is a wise investment?

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    • No, not a good investment at all. It was at $93, now it is down in the low 60's, a sickening drop.

      RVP has an excellent intellectual property portfolio. This will ensure that BDX will continue to lose ground to RVP.

      • 3 Replies to vanishpiontinvestor
      • I have to LMAO everytime you post. What kind of a delusional hypocrite are you? The kind that recommends (dare I call it a stock) RVP, a company that has drop in value by 50% in the last 60 days to a whopping .66 a share. RVP has no institutional interest and rarely trades more than a couple thousand shares a day. IT IS HEADED FOR THE PINK SHEETS...

        I realize it is hard for you to accept your losses in this stock but RVP is a loser.

        BD continues to maintain market leadership and with Obama's call for expanded health care they may see additional growth in the US market. It is a solid company with good predicatable returns.

      • BDX in the 60's is a good buy..... 13 times estimated 09 earnings... but it take the 2% dividend and write 90 covered call... let them take it 6 months out... BDX won't drop to 50... so the premium on the call adds to your dividend...

        History shows, after 1987 and 2003, that the market won't recover quickly, so take these singles and doubles on stocks like BDX... in a few years you'll do well... this is my plan.

      • You need to stop smoking that RVP Crack. How is RVP going to take share away. They have 10 used car salesman for their sales force. Is BDX a good Investment for 2009? BDX will benefit from a soft dollar and 40 dollar oil. Put a conservative 18X multible on 4.90 of earnings gives you 87 dollars and change. Thats a 23% premium over todays price, not to mention a 2% divy as well. I will take 25% in a year.

    • BDX is my favorite stock in my portfolio. I honestly never considered FX exposure in my decision to purchase it.

      First, I think it's possibly the single safest profitable stock on the market right now. With an aging, fattening population, we are going to use more syringes as time goes on, and diabetic treatments in particular. These are things that don't depend on hospitalization, so cuts in healthcare (for efficiency) won't hurt BDX.

      As for your concerns, I wouldn't count on a strong dollar. There is more concern than not that the value of the dollar will tank this year. So if your concern is a strong dollar, I think you're safe with this company.

    • Thank you for the response, and I appreciate the exchange of information.

      I'm going to admit that some of the figures may have gone above me, so my apologies if that hinders my own response.

      A large part of your post seemed to just generate calculations from scratch, starting with the cost of syringes, multiplying that by your estimates of usage, etc. I'm not sure any of that is necessary for the argument. BDX's revenue from syringes is $X. Whatever that value may be, we know it's going to go up because we have an aging, fattening population. That's a given. I can't imagine you disagreeing with that. It's a guaranteed profit.

      Your prediction for loss appears to come with your prediction of reduced hospital admissions, thus affecting BD's safety IV and safety blood collection. That would seem to be the most valuable part of what you're writing, but I have two things. First, does that tie in with your earlier point that Obama is going to reduce unnecessary tests/procedures? Second, to the extent that you think that reduced hospital admissions are going to reduce the use and thus profitability of these aspects of BD, is there really an outpatient alternative to them, and if so, is BD not involved in that angle as well?

      I have of course heard of a nurse being unable to find a vein. I don't think that's generally an equipment fault. I don't see Obama, or outpatient care, changing the difficulty in finding veins on certain patients' physiologies.

      So I'm not convinced.

    • Let me try again and try to make my point in smaller doses.

      I agree with you that there will be more patients with an older population and conditions such as obesity that are on the rise. Lets say you're right and hospital admissions go up 10%. That'd be 3.7M additional admissions.

      If BD sells; a syringe for $.09, an IV needle for $3.00 and a vacutainer tube for $1.50. How much increased sales would they expect to see from these 3.7M new customers?

    • Roughly an amount corresponding with the increased use of healthcare itself...i.e., using your figure of 10% increased admissions, I'd expect around a 10% increase profit for BD. Perhaps even a little better, because compared to the big healthcare equipment industries, BD should do a bit better with outpatient care as well (although per your prior post, they're going to be most profitable from actual admissions).

      Bottom line, as far as I can estimate, BDX, and perhaps secondarily BAX, will track actual use of healthcare better than any other industry. So their profits should go up with the increased role that healthcare will play in the years to come.

    • I'll make it simple.

      If a patient in a hospital gets all of its medications through an IV line, how many needles would that patient need?

    • Well, that's why I'm looking to add Baxter to my portfolio next...

      But there's an obvious difference to how you and I are approaching this. Like I wrote above, I take BD's current profits as $X, and conclude that because the healthcare sector will expand, BD will thus necessarily expand.

      You've got two perspectives that I'm seeing. First, you're building calculations from scratch. But if you're going to do that you've got to make sure that your same figures, applied to today's world, accurately equate BD's current profits. Because if they don't, then obviously your own calculations are off.

      Second, you are making some predictions about the future of healthcare, like the presumed implication that hospitals will distribute medications exclusively by IV. I don't see any basis to that prognosis. I don't see any basis to the prediction that the basics--the fundamentals--of healthcare are going to radically change.

      The healthcare sectors that concern me right now are pharmaceuticals, anything elective, and to a lesser extent the big equipment sectors. Pharma because I think that's the most likely impact recipient of any reforms under Obama. Elective because of the recession. And big equipment as a secondary impact from Obama reforms. "Big equipment" is for lack of a better term incidentally. One of the stocks on my watch list is Stryker. I think there's a lot of advantages there, given their limb replacement tech, both for troops returning and older/heavier population, but I am concerned that things with that company may change under Obama.

      My fav. company in healthcare for that reason is BDX, followed by BAX, followed by JNJ (for the diversity, solid management, and good ethics), followed by Stryker.

    • We've got a good line here and some good reading between both of us but we probably should start as a new topic so others won't have to dig so far to find this. This posting was started by a publisher just trying to get people to link back to their blog site and wasn't a real question.

      I'm going to say you're right in your last posting with the other companies and in fact you are 100% correct about all of them except BD and putting at the front of your list. My point and relevant to this board is your broad assumption of BDX being commodity consumables integral with healthcare delivery. Unlike Baxter, J&J, Cardinal, Stryker etc. whose product offering multiplies down the line, BDX's products are different.

      Please move us to a new posting string with your last reply or a tie into this reply and I'll start up again there. Thanks in advance.

    • Done. And thank you for the discussion. I should be periodically around through the weekend to post, though it's predominantly gonna be a time of rest and liesure for me. :-)

    • No problem and your right about that too! You might want to wait until Monday to post it. If my reply to your post is clear and correct and I've properly shown you what I see, you may want to sell your shares. It'd be a proper response of courtesy to you that you'd have an open market to change your ownership and get a fair price if you desire to do so. Talk with you on Monday!

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