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Becton, Dickinson and Company Message Board

  • byorsell byorsell Jan 20, 1999 2:39 PM Flag

    Small guy sells off pre-earnings...

    Expecting disappointment....no big holders dumping.....BDX beats estimate.....shares jump....back to $40's by Friday.

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    • Nice job on the options analysis. Not many people
      keep an eye on options activity, so it is valuable to
      read your posts.The little sell off prior to the
      public announcement may have happened because some
      traders got wind of the rumors. I saw one posted right on
      this board before earnings were made public. So it is
      not hard for a trader to get hold of negative rumors
      and act on them. I think a more pertinent observation
      is that the stock fell significantly after the
      earnings statement went public. Selling based on rumors
      prior to the earnings announcement would not have
      stopped the fall, which was based on brokerage analysts'
      downgrades. For those of us who are contrarian investors, the
      overselling has done us a big favor in the sense that we can
      now buy shares cheap and benefit from the next run up
      in price. I bought shares twice Friday and expect to
      buy more next week after the price shows signs of
      stabilizing. Keep posting, JM, I see a lot of people are
      reading this board. I can tell this by the increase in
      posting activity Friday. Too bad they don't contribute to
      the discussions very often. The board is usually too
      quiet.

    • At first I thought I was on the wrong message
      board - BD is the Budget Group, the car rental people.
      I usually don't advertise other stocks here but BD
      is also a good buy with a PE of 9.

      I have
      watched BDX before the split and think it may be in the
      range to buy. It may go lower by approx. 10% but will
      rise soon and fast. Any comments on how far BDX may
      drop before rising again?

    • to those analysts, I've waited for the right
      opportunity to increase my position in BD, and today was it!


      I'm a buy and hold type, an excellent company at an
      extremely
      good price.


      Thanks Again, You made my day!

    • I didn't have time to respond before the opening,
      but it looks like you, BioRaider and equitable_cos
      called it correctly. As you know from my posts, I am
      very bullish on BDX. This has not changed in light of
      current events. My strategy is to buy on dips, which
      provides a margin of error, and hold out for a
      rally.
      In keeping with the strategy, I have bought more
      shares this morning. I did so because I believe the long
      term outlook for the business is bright and there is
      more reward potential than there is risk. In my
      opinion, this little selling episode will vanish soon and
      things will get back to normal.

    • at the opening, the market will not help either, any light at the end of the tunnel????

    • That's exactly what I've been saying for the last
      few days now! Believe me, this earnings report is
      mediocre at best!

      Key is how BDX will talk at the
      tommorows analyst meeting about the companies prospects
      moving forward. They will be grilled, particurley about
      Brazil....I'm sure.

    • Again, there is someone out there who has, or
      thinks they have some type of damaging information about
      the company. Today, beginning around 10 AM, Pru Bache
      started buying the Feb 50 puts in 50 lots. They bought a
      few hundred of them. Then other put buyers came in
      and bought the puts at up to a 50 volatility. What
      scares me is that they started doing this while the
      stock showed no big sellers (in the early morning), and
      then continued throughout the day. Obviously, they
      were right, even if only for today. There seemed to be
      a buyer out there in the stock, once it got below
      38, but since he was buying the stock on his bid
      (very easily), he continued to step down. I can't
      imagine the earnings being bad, but something must be out
      there for these put buyers to be as agressive as they
      were today. Go to the Philadelphia Stock Exchange site
      at www.phlx.com and look at the volume of the puts
      today. The only saving grace is that the stock is
      already down so far, that even if there is bad news, it
      shouldn't hurt the stock price that much more. If the stock
      opens down on earnings shortfall tomorrow, I will be a
      buyer. Any thoughts out there???
      JM

      • 3 Replies to JM_Options
      • Interesting you mention Prudential being involved
        with put buying.

        On November 17th, a day after
        the analyst meeting, Prudential cut BDX to hold. A.G.
        Edwards upgraded to buy, and SG Cowen reiterated strong
        buy.

        Also, on December 17th Morgan Stanley
        reiterated Strong Buy.

        I have a sneaky hunch that
        Prudential wants this stock down just in time to an upgrade
        tomorrow morning.

        I figure this quarter cannot be a
        blowup because of bullish analyst meeting in
        mid-November and recent Strong Buy reiteration by MSDW in
        mid-Decemeber.

        This stock is down $4.5 in two days (over
        a 10% correction) and the news would have to be
        devastating to stock it significantly lower.

      • BDX is counting on Latin America for sales
        growth...The Brazilian economy is key. Lot of people are
        nervous about that!

        Look for BDX to meet earnings
        expectations tomorow..maybe even fall a penny short, but the
        real concern will be lackluster revenues growth.
        They'll never get the annual sales to 6B by 2003 as
        promised! The street won't like that!

        Buy the stock
        at $33....back to $45 by June!

      • I've read the earlier posts and agree that if
        indeed earnings are bad and the selling was by one or
        more insiders, that there ought to be an
        investigation. Has anyone had experience bringing matters of
        this type to the attention of the FCC? Pardon my
        French but it really pisses me off when others take
        unfair advantage of their advance notice to lock in tidy
        profits and screw everyone else.

 
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