Nice job on the options analysis. Not many people
keep an eye on options activity, so it is valuable to
read your posts.The little sell off prior to the
public announcement may have happened because some
traders got wind of the rumors. I saw one posted right on
this board before earnings were made public. So it is
not hard for a trader to get hold of negative rumors
and act on them. I think a more pertinent observation
is that the stock fell significantly after the
earnings statement went public. Selling based on rumors
prior to the earnings announcement would not have
stopped the fall, which was based on brokerage analysts'
downgrades. For those of us who are contrarian investors, the
overselling has done us a big favor in the sense that we can
now buy shares cheap and benefit from the next run up
in price. I bought shares twice Friday and expect to
buy more next week after the price shows signs of
stabilizing. Keep posting, JM, I see a lot of people are
reading this board. I can tell this by the increase in
posting activity Friday. Too bad they don't contribute to
the discussions very often. The board is usually too
At first I thought I was on the wrong message
board - BD is the Budget Group, the car rental people.
I usually don't advertise other stocks here but BD
is also a good buy with a PE of 9.
watched BDX before the split and think it may be in the
range to buy. It may go lower by approx. 10% but will
rise soon and fast. Any comments on how far BDX may
drop before rising again?
to those analysts, I've waited for the right
opportunity to increase my position in BD, and today was it!
I'm a buy and hold type, an excellent company at an
Thanks Again, You made my day!
I didn't have time to respond before the opening,
but it looks like you, BioRaider and equitable_cos
called it correctly. As you know from my posts, I am
very bullish on BDX. This has not changed in light of
current events. My strategy is to buy on dips, which
provides a margin of error, and hold out for a
In keeping with the strategy, I have bought more
shares this morning. I did so because I believe the long
term outlook for the business is bright and there is
more reward potential than there is risk. In my
opinion, this little selling episode will vanish soon and
things will get back to normal.
That's exactly what I've been saying for the last
few days now! Believe me, this earnings report is
mediocre at best!
Key is how BDX will talk at the
tommorows analyst meeting about the companies prospects
moving forward. They will be grilled, particurley about
Again, there is someone out there who has, or
thinks they have some type of damaging information about
the company. Today, beginning around 10 AM, Pru Bache
started buying the Feb 50 puts in 50 lots. They bought a
few hundred of them. Then other put buyers came in
and bought the puts at up to a 50 volatility. What
scares me is that they started doing this while the
stock showed no big sellers (in the early morning), and
then continued throughout the day. Obviously, they
were right, even if only for today. There seemed to be
a buyer out there in the stock, once it got below
38, but since he was buying the stock on his bid
(very easily), he continued to step down. I can't
imagine the earnings being bad, but something must be out
there for these put buyers to be as agressive as they
were today. Go to the Philadelphia Stock Exchange site
at www.phlx.com and look at the volume of the puts
today. The only saving grace is that the stock is
already down so far, that even if there is bad news, it
shouldn't hurt the stock price that much more. If the stock
opens down on earnings shortfall tomorrow, I will be a
buyer. Any thoughts out there???
Interesting you mention Prudential being involved
with put buying.
On November 17th, a day after
the analyst meeting, Prudential cut BDX to hold. A.G.
Edwards upgraded to buy, and SG Cowen reiterated strong
Also, on December 17th Morgan Stanley
reiterated Strong Buy.
I have a sneaky hunch that
Prudential wants this stock down just in time to an upgrade
I figure this quarter cannot be a
blowup because of bullish analyst meeting in
mid-November and recent Strong Buy reiteration by MSDW in
This stock is down $4.5 in two days (over
a 10% correction) and the news would have to be
devastating to stock it significantly lower.
BDX is counting on Latin America for sales
growth...The Brazilian economy is key. Lot of people are
nervous about that!
Look for BDX to meet earnings
expectations tomorow..maybe even fall a penny short, but the
real concern will be lackluster revenues growth.
They'll never get the annual sales to 6B by 2003 as
promised! The street won't like that!
Buy the stock
at $33....back to $45 by June!
I've read the earlier posts and agree that if
indeed earnings are bad and the selling was by one or
more insiders, that there ought to be an
investigation. Has anyone had experience bringing matters of
this type to the attention of the FCC? Pardon my
French but it really pisses me off when others take
unfair advantage of their advance notice to lock in tidy
profits and screw everyone else.