This one will not last throught the end of this year. A buyer will be needed to pay the tarp and this franchise has the remaining value to bring a better price but only on a change of control. It should go out in the 4 to 5 dollar range. Providing a nice gain this year.
I think you are wrong. SNV will pay the $975 million dollar TARP before the end of the calendar year. This alone will make this bank much more valuable. It will be bought, but it will be at a higher price that you predict. IMO
they do not have the money to fund paying the tarp back, so in order to pay it which they will be pressured to do they will need to go to the capital market. This will be so expensive for existing shareholders they will not want to do it. Instead they know they will be faced with the best of bad options which will be to sell out and get the control premium for existing shareholders instead of letting the sharks on wall street get it. Either way they will be out but this way the existing investors get more than they will otherwise. Does not feel good to long time holders of which there are many but that is the position we find ourselves in. this has already happen many times in the industry where the bank has been sold but the names never change because 80 to 90 percent of the ownership of the company was sold to raise capital for one reason or the other. While we are in a bind management is not stupid and the board has a large ownership interest in this one. If you look at 2012 snv really showed a loss of over 80 million if it were not for the tax treatment slight of hand tricks of the accountants. In any case the company is worth more than the current stock price reflects the only question will be who gets the benefit of this the existing shareholders or the new investors if there is a capital raise. I am betting the existing team will take care of existing shareholders since they own a large position.