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Outerwall Inc. Message Board

  • bkanwar2 bkanwar2 Mar 20, 2014 3:55 PM Flag


    I have closely followed and traded this stock for last one year. Made and lost probably more. My observations are as follows.

    1. It is a trading stock for big boys.
    2. Some of the short intrest is created and not real.
    3. Management is only friendly towards big intitutions.
    4. Why would management not able to guide properly, despite having oppertunity to guide lower in preannouncement and still not able to beat revenues several last ERs?
    5. There is no short squeeze ever likely to happen. October 2013 sudden increase was to bring price to levels where company agreed to buy back big guys in after hours trades including Goldman.
    6. Mostly longs are screwed by big boys. Example, after last ER and buy back annoucement share price was suddenly raised t$ 71-72 range and kept there while selling shares to anticipating longs that PPS will rise some more after buy back is finalized on March 7th. Shares price was dropped instead after this announcement. Likely taking off all stop losses set by longs.

    So conclusion there is no investing in this stock it serves as ATM for big boys. Share your views

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    • mjroskopf Mar 28, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

      Your logic makes no sense. This is a great investment for small investors. I only own about $3000 In this stock with a basis about half that. It has sound management and works to improve shareholder value. I have no plans to sell this stock for the foreseeable future.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • propitiousaugury Mar 21, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

      Hi bkanwar2 (I think you post on EBIX message board too right?)

      Here are my observations regarding OUTR:

      1. It doesn't matter if the stock is for big boys or isn't.
      2. It also doesn't matter if management sandbags guidance.
      3. What matters is whether management returns cash to shareholders instead of squandering it on "new ventures." They said they will return 75-100% of FCF to shareholders.
      4. It doesn't even matter if a short squeeze happens. The shorts are persistent and know that this stock is very volatile.
      5. You can make a lot of money even if you aren't one of the big boys. Just buy during the panic led sell-offs (which seem to happen biannually).
      6. At this price, the stock seems very cheap. Once you adjust for the new sharecount, the EV/EBITDA is less than 5 and free cash flow yield on market cap is around 20%

      So conclusion here is that the market doesn't know/care about the big boys and will send profits to anyone who cares to buy this stock on the cheap.

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