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Mitek Systems, Inc. Message Board

  • javiertejada javiertejada Jan 29, 2013 8:33 PM Flag

    Investment advice-serious replies please

    I overheard about Mitk at a business dinner and it caught my attention. Do you consider this stock could see double digits by the end of 2013? I've done my DD and I'm ready to invest/trade. HoweverI like to hear what others think, specially those that have followed the stock for some time, thanks.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Thanks for the insights, I'll wait for earnings/outlook before I put some money in.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I've followed MITK for a year and half, and really like it here. I expect to see double digits late 2013 or early 2014. MCD transaction growth is over 25% sequentially and is accelerating. Later this year, transaction growth and revs will begin to converge as customers reload. Their revenue model for MCD is front-end loaded, as they book revs when they sell to channel partners. Channel partners sell to banks, then begin a 6 month process of systems integration. So revs have been flat over the past year as new banks prepare to launch the service. I expect this quarter to be in-line to slightly better than expectations, but once revs accelerate, it should be really good for the stock.

      Further, Mobile Photo Bill Pay is potentially a huge deal. The TAM is larger than MCD, and per-transaction revenues are higher. Once a few banks launch the service, it will likely be a "must-have" product for banks. I think estimates are too low for 2013, and there are several important catalysts, so think the stock is a "Buy."

    • double? Unlikely. That would take consecutive strong quarters of beating estimates and settling the USAA lawsuit. If MITK could get the share price around $4.50, settling the USAA case can easily take it to $7 but it doesn't seem like either side is all too willing to engage in settlement negotiations.

    • I personally would wait till AFTER earnings if I were you....Of course, there is a chance that the earnings surprise us and they are really good, but I dont think its likely. I think it will be either flat or bad... so you can get in lower. I'm holding this through earnings... unless... we see a spike to 3.90 before it ( which I doubt)... I shud have sold it when it hit 3.90-4.00....

 
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