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Key Energy Services Inc. Message Board

  • bdavidcombs@gmail.com bdavidcombs Sep 21, 2013 6:53 PM Flag

    Why MBA is really a long - part 2

    Further, it’s interesting to note that the article stresses that NES is a declining business. The default theory is based on missing guidance, having declining EBITDA. Is it a roll up gone wrong if it starts to make a profit? Is it a declining business if it has a strong 2H? But in the entire article there is not one bit of evidence to support the fact that the business and industry will continue to slow. Nothing mentioned about the weather, rig count, activity, hiring, oil prices, nat gas prices, nothing mentioned to support the theory that the business will continue to decline, only that it has so far. The Power Fuels deal was supposed to be a diversification move into oil, which then backfired with the weather, snow and then rain. So it makes sense that legacy declined due to nat gas prices declining and then makes sense that the combined entity continued to decline due to weather. But does it make sense for it to continue declining, and if so, what supports that?

    So my take away is that unless there is a reason for business to continue to decline, the longs will win on this one. And what seems to be a “the party’s ending” assault by the shorts ultimately supports a bullish outlook.

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    • Well argued, david! I thought about making some counters to some of your assertions. I think he does try to give reasons for future decline in the business (highly commoditized, low margin service, disintermediation, pricing pressure from easy entry competition, etc.) But you know what? I think I'll let tex carry some of his own water on this one. Go for it, tex! Again, nice post, david.

      • 1 Reply to simeondemeenor
      • How do we get great information like this much more widely circulated? Seeking Alpha gets much wider exposure than the NES portion of the KEG message board. Between bdavidcombs & simeondemeenor, it seems that you 2 could come up with a great postive article posted to Seeking Alpha or equivalent (if there is one). As a nervous long, I have been starving for something positive to hold on to and I am sure there are many more in the same boat. Anyhow guys, thanks for the uplift and thanks to the KEG OLB members for sharing their board.

    • Thanks from an increasingly nervous long. Very sound reasoning and you stated what I have been feeling but wasn't able to so eloquently state.

      • 1 Reply to ghondula
      • NES longs we all know my skills in composition are weak at best I did give my secretary a work up and submitted her fine work but it was refused I also tried to post it on keg msg board but it was blocked 3 times the 4th try was put up and taken down after a minute. (A pro verses con work up).

        I will say this, as this is all that I know will make it through the yahoo police lol. The debt would and could be rolled over if required and there debt has not been downgraded by S&P, cash flow can cure many ills especially with young growing companies otherwise many would not survive as I well know from personal experience in several. thusly I feel bk is not likely, unless Nes is playing with the #s and I doubt that Mr. Heckman would be willing to ruin his reputation and legacy at this point of his life and risk the consequences (security fraud and lawsuits as you can bring personal suite in a tort there by piercing the corporate vial) this is his last hurrah and why would he tarnish his reputation and legacy. To that end the blackout and lack of news is most deafening and a big cause for concern. (I wonder why no coverage by the media and YMB wont put up an MSG board it has been requested by several)
        Thanks guys and KEG board for the use

 
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