Just wondering what everyone really believes. Do you believe that the CEO buys 2 mil worth of stock even though he knows or believes 2H to be bad just to look good in a potential suit? Do you believe that a mere biz school student acting alone could write three separate articles (two for ECT and one for NES) and get the stock slammed double digit percentages each and every time? Do you believe that well completion that was delayed by the worst weather on record in ND is lost revenue - or revenue deferred to 2H as described on the con call? Do you believe that WTI is trending upward and that nat gas has bottomed? Do you believe that NES partnering with Halliburton is NES moving in the right direction by taking on a roll as reprocessor or just the last gasp of a failed roll-up? If you had to wager five bucks on each one of these questions where would you put your money?
Good questions, david. Here's a couple for you:
If you were a CEO or Chairman and you knew your 2H was going to be a barn-burner, wouldn't you put more than under 1% of your current holdings on the line, especially considering all the cash you had on hand from the sale of your company? I would. And wouldn't you be seriously urging fellow board members or officers to get more skin in the game? I would. And wouldn't you be defending your company in the media (Cramer's invite) or through PRs against this "mere business student's" assertions that had just decimated your stock price? I would. And if you were HAL and knew you had a technology that would put a future partner out of business and that future partner was having operational and liquidity issues, wouldn't you be very, very stingy in any contract terms with that conspicuously weaker parter? I would. And if you truly saw increased activity in the oil shales, wouldn't you expect the added supply to have a downward pressure on WTI? I would. Where do you see WTI at this time next year, david? I agree nat gas prices have probably bottomed a while back at around $2, and may even go up from here ($3.70) once we start exporting in 2015. But as far as I know, they're still flaring a ton of it and Haynesville remains pretty much in lock down. Do you see an inevitable write-down of the intangible assets as an event that will buoy the stock price? I don't. Do you see the asphalt market turning around to a sufficient degree to make the TFI acquisition look at all beneficial to the company? I don't . Do you see the new-hire in the Eagle Ford to be sharp enough to regain lost customers in time to save operational results in that shale in the near future? I would guess incremental recoup at best. Those are some of my questions, david. Tex's new article should be interesting. His hedge-fund buddies have supposedly given him some corrections to his original article. They think he wasn't bearish enough!
Simeon, thanks as usual, but you're scaring and depressing me so I'm going to put on my beer-goggles, bury my head back in the sand and hope for the best. For the benefit of stalebarrel, both simeon & t_v have been very open about their views and I think we're witnessing a rare event on these message boards. 2 opposing views openly discussed without any name calling or childish insults. On the other hand, I've decided to adopt bdavidcombs views and try to remain positive. Thanks to all.
Are you really playing the devil's advocate or are you really short NES? I think you are!
Are you really Tex (texas_value) with another alias on yahoo? I'm thinking there is a good possibility. How else would you know what you said in reply to bdavidcombs, and I quote: "Tex's new article should be interesting. His hedge-fund buddies have supposedly given him some corrections to his original article. They think he wasn't bearish enough!"
Maybe the company is making it's argument by not responding to a "mere Business Student's assertions". Maybe they look at him as nothing but background noise. Maybe they know that the 2H is going to be a killer and are going to have a big November surprise, so there is no need to respond to the "mere Business Student". If every corporation had to respond to every negative article, analysis, assertion, etc. that was printed or telecast about them, they wouldn't have time to do anything else. Just saying.
Do you believe J. Danforth Quayle and Lou Holtz would want their names and reputations linked to a company that it seems in your opinion is a POS? I don't!
Do you think there may be a connection between Haliburton and NES because of the relationship between #$%$ Cheney and J. Danforth Quayle? Could be!