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Dawson Geophysical Company Message Board

  • left_handed_thread left_handed_thread Oct 25, 2005 1:43 PM Flag

    Earnings Guess

    It appears that Dawson should be reporting earnings sometime in the next week or two. I thought I would take a guess as to the results they will report.

    Last Quarter EPS: $.45 (Yahoo says .47 ???)
    Current Quarter Estimates: $.39-$.45 (Avg $.43)
    Current Year Estimates: $1.48 - $1.57 (Avg $1.53)
    YTD EPS (assuming dilution): $1.11

    Therefore if Dawson reports > .42 this quarter they will beat the current year estimates.

    Items of Importance

    1. Last Quarter Dawson stated that "[Dawson] has yet to realize the full effect of the eleventh crew which was placed into service in May." Therefore, one would assume that this quarter should reflect the full effect of this new crew. Should be a big positive effect on EPS.

    2. Weather - last quarter Dawson said that June's weather was favorable, but the rest of the quarter was not has favorable, but yet Dawson reported record earnings. A question here is how the hurricanes may have affected Dawson. I'm just not sure how much (if any) business comes from the LA, MS, East TX areas.

    3. Additional $5,250,000 of capital expenditures - Since this is the last quarter of this fiscal year, one would assume that this quarter will represent these expenditures. But how much will be amortized and how much will be expensed this quarter and how much have these expenditures helped increase revenue generation for this quarter?

    4. Shelf Registration Statement - While it doesn't appear Dawson has issued any new shares, this still looms over our heads as a potential dilution factor should Dawson issue more stock.


    My guess is that Dawson will report record revenues and income and will beat both current quarter estimates and current year estimates. Although if the hurricanes disrupted business at all, they may miss estimates.

    In addition I hope they provide positive guidance for the next quarter. If they do, that should be a catalyst to get this stock back above $30.


    Thoughts???

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    • DWSN followers may want to check on TGE. TGE is in the same business, seismic data services, and reports their quarter results on Monday. TGE has added additional crews to help meet the demand and their numbers should be excellent. Monday's TGE stock price movement may help foretell what DWSN will do when their numbers comes out.

      bossco

      • 1 Reply to bossco_jr
      • spoke with the investor relations person at DWSN two weeks ago. they had no exposure to Katrina or other tropical storms. All of their crews are working well North of the Gulf. Backlog (no figure given or announced) is at record levels. The main thrust of their business is to find natural gas. The question is, Can they turn all of this business into record earnings? Does anyone 'know' the company well enough to predict? Thanks

 
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