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T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East Message Board

  • vicv1 vicv1 Jan 29, 2011 3:07 PM Flag

    Egypt Crisis

    The continuing Middle Eastern crisis will have a short term effect on TRAMX.

    As of the annual report date (Oct 31, 2010), 8.7% of it's assets were invested in Egypt and another 4.3% of the assets were in Lebanon. Would it be fair to say that a 50% price drop in these holdings is not unreasonable? Therefore 50% * 13% = 6.5% fall. Taking that number times share price of the $7.93 high of Jan 14, just before the Middle Eastern crisis exploded would result in a $.51 per share drop. Or down to $7.42/share not counting other nervousness in other markets such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, etc.

    Let see where this goes. Maybe back to under $7.00/share? Thoughts from other investors are welcome.

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    • There is a possiblility this revolution could spread across the middle east to several other countries. This could drop a lot more but the long term effects could be full of potential. Corruption of current government could end and capitalism could flourish. I think there is much potential here.

    • Well, obviously we've already exceeded the drop you estimated, so either the declines have been wider (other countries) or deeper than your rough estimate, or both. Under $7 looks plausible.

      I certainly expect this to be a short-term thing, and most likely an excellent buying opportunity. I am certainly bullish on oil and the Middle East over the next decade, and the events of the past few days only reinforce that view, but I've been wrong before :-)


    • I remain long term bullish on Africa & continue to dollar cost average into this fund a few dollars every month. I'm looking 10 or 15 years down the road.

      I'm also invested in Nile Capital's fund, which so far looks better than this T-Rowe fund. I'm looking to add to that position during this current pull back.

      GLTA, UCS

10.81+0.07(+0.65%)Aug 26 6:25 PMEDT

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