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GlaxoSmithKline plc Message Board

  • jesse.livermere jesse.livermere Apr 17, 2011 2:19 PM Flag

    Sell Glaxo, buy AMRN

    I am a grad of MIT (Chem E), have an MD from Harvard Med, and currently am involved as a consultant adviser to Medical Scientists at Harvard Med exploring basic and novel pathways in inflamation. I have also been an active player in the stock market for over thirty years and am still solvent.

    Average annual cost of Lovza is $1800..Setting AMR101 at the same price makes Revenue and Earnings calculations very simple. Setting retail markup at 80% This translates to $1 bil in revenue per million patients...Biotech earnings for mature revenue generating companies are very consistantly 20%. So every 1 million patients results in $200 mil in earnings...With a PE of 10 which is appropriate..This translates to a Market Cap of $2BIL...Diluting shares to 200mil which is likely this translates to $10PPS for every million patients that use AMR101 whether in MARINE or ANCHOR....

    Considering the possibility that ANCHOR will fail (less than 4% IMHO)...The MARINE indication should be above 1.5mil patients, based on the fact many patients who could benefit from Lovaza do not take it because it causes gastric distress. Removal of the DHA allieviates over 90% of that problem...

    These figures alao indicate even if there would be an irrational drop in the price of AMRN if ANCHOR did not hold...It would not be an "OREX" situation, but a buying opportunity, as the AMR101 would still be the top high TG drug...Which translates to $15 fully diluted.

    Seems very likely they should get most of the Lovaza group, plus those who can not tolerate Lovaza..ANCHOR is very likely. Its harder to estimate what percentage of the ANCHOR 35 mil cohort will get, but if its even 10% that tacks $35 dollars on the share price eventually..

    ":>) JL

 
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